Point spreads, moneylines, and over-unders.
Yes, the massive increase in sports betting about to take place in the coming months signals the return of college football just as much as Lee Corso donning headgear again. One of the most common bets is the risky but high-rate-of-return moneyline wager.
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Calculating the return of a moneyline bet is actually pretty easy. Let's use a few moneylines courtesy of Sportsbook.ag for week 1 matchups in 2017 as an example.
The moneyline on Arkansas State is plus 500 as it travels to Nebraska. If you were to bet $100 that the Red Wolves will win outright, you would win $500. The biggest moneyline on the board is plus 1700 for UL Monroe as it plays at Memphis. A $100 wager would get you back $1,700.
As you can see, moneylines are potential ways to make big money on an underdog. Of course, do you really have the confidence that Arkansas State or UL Monroe will win these season openers on the road?
It's a long shot, but so were these seven biggest college football moneyline upsets from the past decade, including a three-way tie for fifth and a long shot hitting at plus 5500.
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Tied for 5th. September 8, 2012. UL Monroe 34 – Arkansas 31, Plus 2500
$100 Would Have Won You: $2,500
If UL Monroe does upset Memphis this week, it won't be its first massive moneyline upset.
Kolton Browing threw for 412 yards and 3 touchdowns and ran for another 69 and this game-winning score. The Warhawks would rack up 550 yards of total offense to shock #8 Arkansas.
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Tied for 5th. October 22, 2011. Texas Tech 41 – Oklahoma 38, Plus 2500
$100 Would Have Won You: $2,500
Coming off back-to-back losses to #24 Texas A&M and #17 Kansas State, no one was expecting the Red Raiders to end #3 Oklahoma's 39-game home winning streak. QB Seth Doege shredded the Sooners defense for 441 yards and 4 touchdown passes while the defense accounted for two turnovers.
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Tied for 5th. September 11, 2010. South Dakota 41 – Minnesota 38, Plus 2500
$100 Would Have Won You: $2,500
After getting blown out the week before 38-7 to Central Florida, the week 2 tilt against the Gophers looked to be another body bag contest for South Dakota. But 55,488 fans inside TCF Bank Stadium watched in disbelief as the Coyotes racked up 444 yards of total offense led by Dante Warren's 352 passing yards and 3 touchdowns.
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4. September 4, 2010. Jacksonville State 49 – Mississippi 48, Plus 2585
$100 Would Have Won You: $2,585
"Without a doubt, it's the worst loss of my career," Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt would go on to say after blowing a 31-10 halftime lead to an FCS opponent.
In a game that was supposed to be the coming out party for Oregon transfer quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, it was Gamecocks' QB Coty Blanchard who made national headlines after finding running back Calvin Middleton in a sea of bodies to complete a two-point conversion in double overtime for the win.
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3. August 31, 2013. Eastern Washington 49 – Oregon State 46, Plus 2750
$100 Would Have Won You: $2,750
Behind the 441 yards passing and 107 yards running of legendary Eagles' QB Vernon Adams, Eastern Washington stunned #25 Oregon State to become just the third FCS school ever to defeat a ranked FBS squad.
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2. September 5, 2015. Portland State 24 – Washington State 17, Plus 5250
$100 Would Have Won You: $5,250
This isn't the biggest moneyline upset, but it's certainly the strangest.
On a soggy afternoon in Pullman, the Vikings slugged their way to a win despite only 61 yards passing and 294 yards of offense compared to 411 for Wazzou.
Astoundingly, all was not lost for Washington State. The Cougars would go on to defeat the likes of Rutgers, Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, Arizona State, and #19 UCLA en route to a Sun Bowl victory over Miami.
For its part, Portland State would go on to destroy another FBS foe when it rocked North Texas 66-7 in Denton. The Vikings would find themselves in the FCS playoffs by season's end.
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1. November 14, 2015. New Mexico 31 – Boise State 14, Plus 5500
$100 Would Have Won You: $5,500
If a friend, fan, New Mexico alum, or handicapper told you they saw this one coming, just walk away.
The Broncos entered the game with a 7-2 mark while the Lobos were still getting their footing under coach Bob Davie. It notched perhaps the biggest victory in school history by beating Boise State for the first time in seven tries.
The offensive stats were all in Boise's favor: 641 total yards of offense led by Brett Rypien's 506 yards passing and 2 touchdowns. BSU led New Mexico in first downs by a whopping 40 to 11, but 4 turnovers doomed the Broncos as the win propelled the Lobos into the New Mexico bowl the following month.
