I imagine App State head coach Dustin Kerns still has nightmares of Freddie Hicks’ off-balance, game-winning jumper from the elbow. That shot lifted Arkansas State over the Mountaineers in the semifinals of last year’s Sun Belt Conference Tournament.
It kept the Mountaineers from the NCAA Tournament after finishing the season 27-7, their best record in program history.
Will App State get some sort of revenge tonight on the national stage?
The Mountaineers (11-7 overall, 5-2 Sun Belt) are coming into this one on a five-game win streak and will be playing their third game in a four-game road stretch.
The Wolves (14-5, 5-2) have won three in a row, including winning the last two by double-digits. They defeated Georgia State on Saturday, 85-59, behind a 29-0 first-half run.
Arkansas State lost Kobe Julien — last year’s leading scorer in the Sun Belt — to injury for about a month, but he has played in their last three games. The Red Wolves went 2-2 while he was sidelined.
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App State at Arkansas State Betting Odds
Arkansas State is a 6.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against App State while the Over/Under is 137.5.
The Moneyline for Arkansas State is at -270 and at +230 for App State.
App State at Arkansas State On TV
The matchup between App State and Arkansas State will be televised on ESPN2.
Tonight’s game tips off at 9 p.m. ET.
App State at Arkansas State Prediction
I predict Arkansas State will cover the 6.5-point spread. I also predict this game will go under 137.5 points.
I initially thought that App State would keep this around one possession and that this game might come down to the final shot. But the more I looked at it, the more I was convinced the Red Wolves would be just a little too much for the Mountaineers, especially in front of a rowdy home crowd.
Arkansas State is leading the Sun Belt in scoring, averaging 79.1 points per game. The Red Wolves don’t shoot the ball that well (41%), but the amount of shots they take makes up for it. Per KenPom, they have an adjusted offensive efficiency of 109.0, which ranks 123rd in the country. That number jumps to 117.9 in conference games.
App State’s defense is as gritty as they come and will make it tough on the Red Wolves. The Mountaineers are allowing just 62 PPG and forcing their opponents to shoot 38% from the field and only 28.6% from the 3-point line. The Red Wolves don’t shoot the ball well from the outside, so I don’t anticipate many of those shots to fall.
It’s Arkansas State’s defense that I think gives them the edge here, though. In his most recent postgame interview, Red Wolves coach Bryan Hodgson emphasized how much more focused the team has been on its defensive approach.
On the season, Arkansas State is allowing an effective field-goal percentage of 45%, which ranks 17th in the country. It is second in the Sun Belt in blocks (4.6/game) and forces almost 13 turnovers per game. App State turns the ball over on 18.3% of its possessions. I think the Mountaineers will have a few too many empty possessions tonight.
I’m also not very encouraged by the schedule App State has played so far. There aren’t really any tough games on their schedule while Arkansas State defeated a 16th-ranked Memphis team, a really good UAB team, and lost to second-ranked Alabama by eight. Their experience against better opponents this season could be a factor.
There are only four players on App State’s roster who were part of that semifinal game from last year. Only two of those players saw the court, and one was Myles Tate. The fifth-year guard has been one of the best players in the conference this season, averaging 15.6 points and 5.5 assists per game.
CJ Huntley also played significant minutes last year and is averaging 14.9 PPG and 6.6 RPG.
The Red Wolves are led by senior guard Taryn Todd, who is averaging 16.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 3.3 APG. Julien is second on the roster with 13 PPG and 5.6 RPG.
Arkansas State is 9-8-1 against the spread this season while App State is 10-6. The Over is 8-10 in ASU’s games and 6-9-1 in App State’s.
