Two of the top three scoring teams in the Sun Belt meet when Arkansas State visits Marshall for this late-night tip-off.
This will be the only meeting between these conference foes this season. The Red Wolves are in first place in the conference and are on a six-game win streak. They improved to 18-5 and 9-2 in league play after Saturday’s 85-74 win over Texas State.
Marshall (14-10, 7-4) has won four of its last five and defeated Coastal Carolina 67-62 in its last outing. However, all four of those wins came against three teams who are in the bottom third of the conference standings.
Being the top team in the league, Arkansas State is going to get each team’s best shot, so expect the Herd to come out with some urgency.
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
Arkansas State at Marshall Odds
Arkansas State is a 3.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Marshall while the Over/Under is at 149.5 points.
The Moneyline for Arkansas State is at -175 and at +146 for Marshall.
Arkansas State at Marshall On TV
The matchup between Arkansas State and Marshall will be televised on ESPNU.
Tonight’s game tips off at 9 p.m. ET.
Arkansas State at Marshall Prediction
I predict Arkansas State will cover the 3.5-point spread. I also predict for this game to go under 149.5 points.
Both teams can score at a high rate and tend to play at a faster pace, especially ASU. The Red Wolves average 78.9 points per game while the Herd average 75.5 PPG. However, I think both defenses will force difficult shots all game long.
Marshall doesn’t operate out of the low post very often and usually uses high-ball screens to initiate its offense. Their spacing often leaves the paint open and defenses vulnerable to backdoor cuts and open driving lanes.
The Red Wolves’ defense is fast and athletic, though, and I don’t think they will have any problems taking those opportunities away. Since returning from an ankle injury, ASU big man Izaiyah Nelson has been playing really well and I think his athleticism will create issues for the Herd in the paint on both ends of the floor. He’s averaging 16.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and one steal per game over his last two outings.
Senior guard Taryn Todd paces ASU with 15.8 PPG while preseason Player of the Year Kobe Julien adds 12.9 PPG and 5.6 RPG.
Nelson will be guarded by one of the best inside defenders in the conference in Obinna Anochili-Killen, though, who leads the Sun Belt with 2.7 blocks per game. The 6-foot-8 senior from Nigeria also leads the Herd with 13.5 PPG and 5.7 RPG. Mikal Dawson chips in with 13.1 PPG and Dezayne Mingo averages 11.6 PPG and 4.9 APG.
According to KenPom, these are the two teams in the league that allow the most points from 2-point field goals, so whoever does a better job protecting the rim will be key.
Marshall is the second-best 3-point shooting team in the conference, knocking down 37% of its shots from the outside, but the Red Wolves are the best team in the league at guarding the 3, allowing opponents to shoot just 27.5%.
I think Arkansas State’s defense and ability to take care of the ball is what allows them to pull away late. The Red Wolves only commit 8.4 turnovers per game, which is impressive for the tempo they like to play at. The Herd force a turnover on 18% of defensive possessions, which is decent, but I think they’ll need to force more than that if they want to get a win.
ASU is 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 games and Marshall is 2-5-2 ATS as an underdog. The over is 2-8 in ASU’s last 10 and 3-5-1 while the Herd are an underdog.