Last year, the Mountain West Conference earned a league-record six teams in the NCAA tournament. That by far was the most by a mid-major conference in last year’s tournament. Once again, the Mountain West appears to be the best mid-major basketball conference with the chance of having the most participants.
Appearing behind the Mountain West is the West Coast Conference.
Of all the mid-major conferences that could get more than one NCAA bid, these two are the leading candidates.
Last year, four mid-major conferences earned multiple bids. Besides the six from the Mountain West, the West Coast Conference, American Athletic Conference, and Atlantic 10 each had two participants.
This year, besides the Mountain West and West Coast Conference, it could be difficult for another league to get multiple bids.
Joe Lunardi, the inventor of bracketology at ESPN, has three Mountain West and two West Coast Conference teams in his latest tournament projections. No other mid-major conference has more than one representative.
From the Mountain West, Lunardi has San Diego State as a No. 11 seed and a play-in team. He projects New Mexico as a No. 9 seed and automatic qualifier in the Midwest Region and Utah State as a No. 10 seed in the same region.
From the West Coast Conference, Lunardi projects Gonzaga as a No. 8 seed in the West Region and Saint Mary’s as a No. 8 seed as the WCC automatic qualifier in the Midwest.
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NET RANKINGS
The key when looking at candidates for NCAA bids is to check the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings.
The NET includes more components than just winning percentage. It takes into account game results, strength of schedule, game location, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. The NET rankings change on a daily basis.
Here is a look at the strongest mid-major conferences this season. We are judging by how many potential NCAA tournament teams could come out of each conference.
Mountain West
In the NCAA Net Rankings prior to the action on Tuesday, Feb. 11, The Mountain West Conference had four of the top 52 teams, led by New Mexico, which was 37th. The others are Utah State (38), Boise State (47), and San Diego State (52)
They are the four leading contenders for NCAA berths and one can see how bunched up everything is.
No. 74 Nevada and No. 78 Colorado State still have plenty of work to do, but certainly can’t be counted out at this stage.
The Mountain West should not approach last year’s total of six teams in this year’s tournament but would do well with half that total.
West Coast Conference
The WCC has two teams in the NET rankings much higher than any Mountain West team. Gonzaga was 14th and St. Mary’s was 21st. Santa Clara was the next highest WCC team at 54th. Gonzaga has played one of the toughest non-conference schedules, ranked 23rd nationally by Kenpom.com. That has helped the Zags, even though they have lost to St. Mary’s.
Both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s appear to be NCAA teams if they don’t slump badly. Santa Clara still has plenty of work to do, as does Oregon State, which was 66th.
American Athletic Conference
It appears as if the only way the AAC could get multiple teams is if Memphis doesn’t win the conference tournament and earn the automatic bid.
Memphis has a NET ranking of 45th. The next highest team is North Texas at 58th. North Texas only lost by four points in its lone game at Memphis.
Florida Atlantic, a Final 4 team in 2023 and an NCAA tourney participant last year in its first AAC season, currently has a NET ranking of 102nd. The Owls likely will have to win the AAC tournament to earn a berth.
Two other teams that could be dangerous in the tournament are last year’s finalists, defending champion UAB and Temple. UAB has a NET Ranking of 115th, while Temple is at 136th entering Tuesday’s action.
Atlantic 10
Last year, the Atlantic 10 had two teams make the tournament. Dayton received an at-large bid and Duquesne was the surprise winner of the Atlantic 10 tournament to earn the automatic bid. Seeded sixth, Duquesne beat No. 5 seed VCU, 57-51, in the Atlantic 10 championship.
It appears this year only one Atlantic 10 team could get, unless there is a Duquesne-type upset again in the final.
VCU owns the top NET ranking from the Atlantic 10 at No. 37. The next closest team is George Mason, which entered Tuesday in first place, with a one-game lead over VCU. George Mason’s NET ranking is 63rd.
Dayton, the preseason betting favorite to win the Atlantic 10 regular season title via BetMGM, is third in Net ranking at 76th. A darkhorse could be St. Joseph’s, which stands with a NET ranking of 85th, but the Hawks would likely have to win the tournament to earn a berth.
Best of the rest
Among other strong conferences are the Missouri Valley Conference and Conference USA. Drake has the Missouri Valley Conference’s top NET ranking (57) with Bradley (83) and Northern Iowa (95) in pursuit.
Liberty (75) has the top NET ranking in Conference USA followed by Middle Tennessee State (107) and Jacksonville State (111).
There are other competitive mid-major conferences, but it would be a surprise if any have more than one participant.
That said, there is still a lot of basketball to be played between now and Selection Sunday (March 16) and so much could change. Yet for now, it might be difficult to match last year’s total of four mid-major conferences with multiple NCAA bids.
