Drake looks to avenge one of its two losses this season when the Bulldogs visit Murray State tonight.
The Racers are the most recent team to hand the Bulldogs a defeat, coming in a 66-59 victory on Jan. 5. That win snapped Drake’s 28-game home winning streak.
Since then, the Bulldogs have won eight in a row and are 20-2 overall and 12-2 in Missouri Valley Conference play. They have won five of those games by double-digits and sit atop the league standings.
Meanwhile, the Racers (11-12, 5-7) have gone 3-5 and are facing a three-game losing streak. They’re coming off arguably their worst performance of the season where they allowed Missouri State to pick up its first conference win. Murray State trailed 43-19 at one point as the loss pushed them into a tie for sixth place in the MVC.
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Drake at Murray State Odds
Drake is a 4.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Murray State while the Over/Under is at 123 points.
The Moneyline for Drake is at -190 and at +170 for Murray State.
Drake at Murray State On TV
The matchup between Drake and Murray State will be televised on ESPN2.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
Drake at Murray State Prediction
I predict Murray State will cover the 4.5-point spread but Drake will win. I also predict this game barely goes over the total.
There aren’t many teams in the country right now that are playing as well as Drake, making it hard to bet against the Bulldogs. However, I think Murray State will bounce back from Saturday’s loss with a strong performance here.
And as we’ve seen in the Valley this season, anybody can beat anybody.
In the first meeting, Drake shot an unusually poor 28% from the 3-point line. The Bulldogs are shooting 38% from the arc in conference play, which is the best mark in the MVC. The Racers played tight defense and defended the dribble-handoffs well, which created so much space for Drake’s playmakers.
Behind Nick Ellington, the Racers also protected the rim extremely well in the first game. Ellington finished with three blocks and altered countless other shots around the rim. If he can do that again, and the Racers can have the same type of success defensively, it can allow them to get out and play a little faster and not let Drake get set up in its stout half-court defense.
Murray State loves to play downhill and get to the rim. Per KenPom, 55.2% of its points come from 2-point field goals, which is the most in the league. Drake packs the paint, plays great help defense, and forces a ton of turnovers, however. The Bulldogs’ 14.5 turnovers per game are the most in the conference. Their 58 points per game allowed ranks second in the nation behind only Houston.
Since scoring in the paint is hard to come by against Drake, the Racers will have to knock down a few 3-pointers and get to the free-throw line if they want to win. They were 46.7% (7/15) from 3 in the first meeting. They shot just 4-for-19 from 3 against Mo State, so expect some positive shooting regression.
Six-foot-2 senior JaCobi Wood leads the Racers with 13.5 points and five assists per game. AJ Ferguson adds 12 PPG and 5.4 RPG, and Kylen Milton and Terence Harcum both average 11 PPG.
Drake is led by MVC Player of the Year frontrunner Bennett Stirtz, who leads the league with 18.4 PPG, 6.3 APG, and 2.5 steals per game. Mitch Mascari averages 11.5 PPG and shoots 46.6% from outside, the third-best mark in the country.
Murray State is one of the few teams that has posed problems for Drake this season and I expect the Racers to come out eager to get back in the win column and brush off their worst loss of the season.
The Racers are 4-3-1 against the spread as an underdog and Drake is 6-8-1 ATS as a favorite.
