The top team in the Southern Conference will put its unbeaten home and conference records on the line tonight when Samford hosts ETSU.
The Bulldogs (15-3 overall, 5-0 SoCon) have won six in a row and are coming off a 75-74 victory at Mercer where Rylan Jones knocked down a free throw with 0.9 seconds left as Samford survived. They didn’t convert a field goal in the final 9:12 of the contest.
ETSU (10-8, 3-2) was on the other side of a close one in its last outing, losing to Furman 73-70. A Quimari Peterson 3 ball to tie the game missed at the horn. It’s been an up-and-down season for the Bucs, but they’ve played in plenty of close games. Three of their last four have been decided by one possession.
Now, they’ll go into a hostile environment and try to snap Samford’s 28-game home win streak.
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ETSU at Samford Betting Odds
Samford is a 5.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against ETSU while the Over/Under is at 154.5.
The Moneyline for Samford is at -238 and at +205 for ETSU.
ETSU at Samford On TV
The matchup between ETSU and Samford will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 6 p.m. ET.
ETSU at Samford Prediction
I predict Samford will cover the 5.5-point spread. I also predict this game will go over 154.5 points.
Bucky Ball is alive and well.
That is the term coined for the style of play the Bulldogs play under head coach Bucky McMillan. They apply a ton of full-court pressure, try to speed teams up, and play with a high level of pace offensively.
Samford is tied for third in the country in steals per game (10.5) and 15th in fast break points (15.78 per game). According to KenPom, it has an adjusted tempo of 70.4, which ranks 53rd in the nation.
The Bulldogs also rank seventh in Division I in scoring offense, averaging 86.8 PPG. They create easy shots off of turnovers but are also effective in the half-court. They’re shooting 38.4% from the 3-point line and shooting 30 threes a game.
Six-foot-4 guard Trey Fort leads the Bulldogs with 14.8 points per game and forward Jaden Brownell is second on the roster with 14.6. Collin Holloway (10.9) and Jones (10.8) also average double-digit scoring.
In this nationally-televised matchup in front of its packed gym, I anticipate Samford to embrace the atmosphere and continue to put up a lot of points, especially since they went cold in the second half against Mercer.
With 10 players averaging at least 11 minutes per game, they have plenty of guys that can step up to make a big play and create some energy.
ETSU will need to take care of the ball if it wants a chance. It has done a good job of that this season, averaging only 11.8 turnovers per night.
An area where the Bucs can find success — and definitely slow the pace down — is on the offensive glass. They get an offensive rebound on 38.2% of their possessions, which ranks 12th in the country. The Bulldogs allow an offensive rebound on 35.4% of their defensive possessions, which ranks 340th.
Crashing the offensive glass might allow for easier run-outs for the Bulldogs, but those second-chance points really silence home crowds and take teams that like to play fast out of their rhythm.
The Bucs also shoot the ball well from outside, knocking down 35.7% of their 3-point attempts. They’ll likely need to score a lot to hang around.
ETSU senior forward Jaden Seymour and Peterson are two of the best players in the conference and will need to have big games if the Bucs want to pull off the upset. Peterson leads the league in scoring (18.3 PPG) and Seymour is fourth in the SoCon in scoring (16.7 PPG) and rebounding (6.8/game).
While these guys can probably keep ETSU in the game, I think Samford feeds off the crowd and environment and will be tough to stop after getting hot.
ETSU is 2-5-1 against the spread in away games and the Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS at home. The Over is 7-9 for both teams.
