This season has been one of several close calls against quality competition for Gonzaga. The Zags have ended up on the short end of most of the nail-biters and now get another chance to face a quality team when Gonzaga visits Saint Mary’s in Saturday’s West Coast Conference showdown.
Saint Mary’s (19-3, 9-0) is riding a nine-game winning streak, all in WCC games. Gonzaga (16-6, 7-2) has won two in a row following Wednesday’s 98-60 home win over Oregon State. That avenged a 97-89 overtime loss at Oregon State on Jan. 16.
The other WCC loss was a 103-99 home defeat to Santa Clara.
Those two close conference losses matched many of the Zags’ non-league games against quality teams. They lost 65-62 against UCLA, 77-71 against Connecticut, 90-89 in overtime to Kentucky, and 86-78 in overtime to West Virginia.
Gonzaga entered the weekend the highest-ranked WCC team by Kenpom.com at No. 10. Saint Mary’s was No. 23.
In Gonzaga’s win on Wednesday over Oregon State, 6-foot-5 graduate student Khalif Battle scored 19 of his team-high 23 points in the first half. Graham Ike, a 6-foot-9 redshirt senior, added 22 points. Ike leads Gonzaga in scoring (17.3 PPG) while Battle, now at his fourth school, averages 12.3 PPG.
Saint Mary’s is coming off Wednesday’s 67-54 win at Santa Clara. The Gaels trailed by two points with 3:14 left in the first half before going on an incredible 30-0 run en route to their 15th consecutive road win, currently the best in the nation.
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Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s Odds
Gonzaga is a 1.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Saint Mary’s with the Over/Under at 146.5
The moneyline for Gonzaga is -140 while it is +115 for Saint Mary’s.
Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s On TV
The game between Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s will be televised on ESPN.
Tipoff is shortly after 11 p.m. ET
Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s Prediction
I like Gonzaga laying the points. The Zags are 4-1 on the road, with the lone loss that aforementioned overtime defeat against Oregon State. Saint Mary’s is 11-1 at home, with the lone loss 75-68 to Utah State.
Gonzaga has been so close against so many quality times that it seems like it is the Zags time to turn things around. Plus, Gonzaga has a decided advantage in three-point percentage and free-throw shooting, which should be a factor.
Gonzaga entered the weekend second in the country averaging 89.6 points per game, fifth in free-throw percentage (80.3), and third in field goal percentage (50.2). Gonzaga averages 16.3 made free throws per game, which leads the West Coast Conference.
Saint Mary’s is seventh in the nation and first in the WCC in scoring defense, allowing 61.0 points per game. The Gaels average 76.2 points, which is fifth in the WCC. St. Mary’s shoots .340 from three-point range and just .701 from the foul line.
The player who makes Gonzaga go is 6-foot senior point guard Ryan Nembhard, who entered the weekend leading the nation in assists per game (9.9) and was second nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio (4.52).
Saint Mary’s leading scorer is 6-foot-4 senior Augustas Marciulionis, who averages 13.6 PPG while shooting .360 from deep. Paulius Murauskas, a 6-foot-8 senior, averages 13.1 points and a team-high 8.9 rebounds.
This will be a game of pace, with Gonzaga hoping to play an up-tempo game and Saint Mary’s playing a more controlled style. Gonzaga is 14th nationally in fast break points (15.45). Gonzaga’s adjusted tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) according to Kenpom.com is 70.3, which is 41st nationally.
Saint Mary’s averages just 7.59 fast break points, 291st nationally. The Gaels’ adjusted tempo was 62.1, which is 356th nationally.
The team that controls tempo is the likely winner.