What’s the NCAA Tournament without upsets? It’s part of what makes the madness maddening.
Every year we get plenty of mid-major programs that disrupt the dreams of their Power Five opponents and leave them in disbelief. Last year’s upsets included Yale over Auburn, Oakland over Kentucky, and James Madison over Wisconsin.
Here’s a look at the most likely upsets in the first round of the 2025 NCAA tourney, featuring college basketball betting odds via BetMGM.
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
No. 11 Drake (spread +6.5, moneyline +265) over No. 6 Missouri
Pace of play will be critical in this one. Who can control it? Per KenPom, Drake ranks nearly dead last (364th) in the country in adjusted tempo while Mizzou likes to get out and run. The Bulldogs love to play their methodical game, running through their offense and draining the shot clock on nearly every possession. They are always in control and rarely get sped up.
Missouri is a dangerous team if it’s getting to the free-throw line. The Tigers also have a much more physical presence than the Bulldogs, which could be overwhelming down the stretch. Missouri has struggled away from the house, going 4-8 in neutral and away games.
I have faith in Drake staying poised and comfortable, though, and that MVC Player of the Year Bennett Stirtz becomes a household name by the end of the tournament.
No. 13 Akron (+14.5, +725) over No. 4 Arizona
Akron played one of its worst games of the season against Miami (OH) in the MAC championship game but still found a way to win behind Nate Johnson’s game-winning layup. Miami did a few things to take Akron out of the flow of its offense, including knocking down shots and not letting the Zips run the floor. This is where Akron excels. They average 13.4 fast break points per game and their 84.6 PPG ranks eighth in the country.
Arizona is the top-scoring team in the Big 12 (81.7 PPG) and the Wildcats also put up the most shots in the league. This means more missed shots and more opportunities for the Zips to score in transition.
Johnson is an elite defender, and I think he can keep Arizona’s Caleb Love from putting on a scoring display. Love likes to force things at times, which can lead to Akron points.
No. 13 Yale (+7.5, +260) over No. 4 Texas A&M
The Bulldogs shocked everyone when they defeated Auburn last year as a No. 13 seed and a 15-point underdog. John Poulakidas dropped 28 points in that game, including six 3-pointers, 16 second-half points, and the final go-ahead triple. The 6-foot-6 senior is one of the top mid-major players in the NCAA Tournament and could easily have a repeat performance. Him and Ivy League Player of the Year, Bez Mbeng, were both starters last season and bring the type of experience that’s needed to win a game like this.
Yale will be going up against the Aggies’ tough, physical defense, however. They rank seventh in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (92.1) and force a lot of difficult shots. The Bulldogs’ physicality is very underrated, though. Especially on the inside with Nick Townsend.
RELATED: 2025 March Madness Odds
No. 12 UC San Diego (+2.5, +124) over No. 5 Michigan
This has already become one of, if not the, most popular upset selections in this year’s NCAA Tournament. The Tritons deserve that type of respect and could easily win. They’re 30-4, own the nation’s longest winning streak at 15, and went 2-1 in Quad 1 wins, knocking off Utah State and UC Irvine on the road. UCSD hasn’t played a Power Five program yet this season, so this will be a different type of talent and physicality than they have faced.
The biggest knock on the Tritons in this matchup is they don’t have the size to handle Michigan’s frontcourt. They only have two players taller than 6-foot-6 who play significant minutes while Michigan has two 7-foot all-conference starters in Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf.
The Tritons’ defensive game plan, though, is to take away the paint. On each defensive possession, every player always seems to have at least one foot in the paint at all times — and it works. Knocking down 3s is the key to beating UCSD, and that’s not one of the Wolverines’ strengths.
