Murray State might be the most inconsistent squad in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. The Racers picked up quality wins over Drake and Northern Iowa early in conference play but then were victims of a four-game losing streak. When the Racers (14-14, 8-9) show up to play, they can contend with anyone in the league, but when they don’t, things can get ugly. Murray State looks to avoid one of those ugly performances today against Bradley.
The Braves (21-7, 12-5) are third in the conference standings and had a let down spot Wednesday in a loss to Illinois State following a big win over Drake.
Bradley won, 74-61, when it visited Murray State on Jan. 18.
Murray State at Bradley Odds
Bradley is a 6.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Murray State while the Over/Under is at 136.5 points.
The Moneyline for Bradley is at -300 and at +240 for Murray State.
Murray State at Bradley On TV
The matchup between Murray State and Bradley will be televised on ESPNU.
Tonight’s game tips off at 6 p.m. ET.
Murray State at Bradley Prediction
I predict Bradley covers the 6.5-point spread. I also predict for this game to go under 136.5 points.
It’s hard for me to trust this Racers team, and especially their offense. Per KenPom, their offensive adjusted efficiency of 104.0 is the third-worst mark in the conference and their effective field-goal percentage of 49% is second-worst. The Racers can really struggle to generate offense at times and I think that proves true against Bradley.
Defensively, the Braves’ effective field-goal percentage of 48.4% is the best mark in the conference, and they are the best 3-point defense in the league, allowing 32.3% from the 3-point line.
Bradley likes to get out in transition when it can, and I anticipate it’ll have plenty of opportunities to do so after forcing missed shots. If not, the Braves like to run a four-out offense and use point guard Duke Deen in ball screens to try and get him to facilitate and find shooters. The Braves are the top 3-point shooting team in the league (40.7%).
However, Murray State does a good job of defending the perimeter (33.6%) and only 32.3% of opponents’ shot attempts are triples, which is the lowest rate in the league. We’ll see if Murray State can run Bradley off the 3-point line.
One area the Racers can find some success is on the offensive glass. They grab an offensive rebound on 30.5% of opportunities, so if their offense isn’t clicking expect them to crash the boards to get some potential second-chance points. Bradley is one of the worst in the MVC at allowing offensive boards (28.6%).
Murray State has a balanced scoring attack with four players averaging 11 or more points. Six-foot-2 senior guard JaCobi Wood averages 13.6 PPG, and AJ Ferguson, Terence Harcum, and Kylen Milton each average 11+ PPG.
Deen leads the Braves with 13.9 points and 3.9 assists per game. He averages just 9 PPG in the Braves’ losses but 15 PPG in their wins. It’ll be key for him to get going early. Zek Montgomery adds 12.9 PPG and Darius Hannah averages 11.8 PPG and 5.7 rebounds per game.
I don’t doubt the Racers will go out and battle here, but I think the Braves will be too much on both sides of the ball.
Murray State is 4-5-11 against the spread as an underdog and Bradley is 10-11-1 as a favorite.
