The final game of the NCAA Tournament’s round of 64 should be a doozy when Liberty meets Oregon on Friday night.
The Flames had to make the nearly 2,800-mile trip from Lynchburg, Virginia, to Seattle while the Ducks had to make a much shorter 283-mile trip from Eugene.
Liberty (28-6) is coming off a Conference USA title where it barely survived in the semifinals behind Kaden Metheny’s hot shooting. It is only the Flames’ second season in the league after leaving the Atlantic Sun. This is Liberty’s third trip to the big dance under head coach Ritchie McKay, with the most recent trip coming in 2021. They advanced to the second round in the 2019 tourney.
Oregon (24-9) was on an eight-game winning streak before losing to Michigan State in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. The Ducks are in their 14th season under Dana Altman, and he has taken them to nine NCAA Tournaments. They lost to Creighton in the second round last March.
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
Liberty vs. Oregon Odds
Oregon is a 6.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Liberty while the Over/Under is at 139.5 points.
The Moneyline for Liberty is at +245 and -305 for Oregon.
Liberty vs. Oregon Channel
The NCAA Tournament matchup between Liberty and Oregon will be televised on truTV.
This East Regional contest tips off at 10:10 p.m. ET in Seattle.
Liberty vs. Oregon Prediction
I predict Liberty covers the 6.5-point spread, but Oregon barely grinds out a win. I also predict this game to go under 139.5 points.
The Flames are going to do whatever they can to keep this game at a slow pace. They rarely take bad shots and their effective field-goal percentage of 58.2% is the second-best in the country. This means they hardly allow fast break opportunities, and the Ducks like to get out in transition when they can. They have an athletic 7-footer in Nate Bittle who can rim run.
Liberty is also dangerous from the 3-point line and is the fifth-best 3-point shooting team in the country (58.4%). If the shots are falling, it could be hard for the Ducks to keep pace. Oregon has guarded the 3-ball well this season, however, and only allows opponents to shoot 31.7% from the arc.
Both of these teams are stout defensively, especially Liberty. Oregon has an adjusted defensive efficiency of 96.5, which ranks 30th in the nation, and Liberty’s ADE of 98.8 is 48th. The Flames’ defensive effective field-goal percentage is eighth-best in Division I (45.9). LU and Duke are the only two teams in the country who rank in the top 10 in offensive and defensive effective FG%.
Bittle can score at all three levels, can get to the free-throw line, and is also a good passer, making him a tough guard for Liberty’s bigs. However, the Flames’ frontcourt of Zach Cleveland and Owen Aquino are lengthy and really athletic. I think they can do a decent job of forcing Bittle into some difficult shots. The third-team All-Big Ten selection paces the Ducks with 14.1 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. Jackson Shelstad adds 13.2 PPG, and TJ Bamba and Keeshawn Barthelemy both score 10 PPG.
The Flames are led by CUSA Sixth-Man of the Year, Taelon Peter, who averages 13.9 PPG. Metheny adds 13.5 PPG, and Cleveland averages 11 PPG and 6.3 RPG.
Liberty has three players in its rotation that shoot 38% or better from the arc — Meheny, Peter, and Colin Porter. It’s truly one of the most dangerous trios in the tournament. However, the Flames really struggle at the free-throw line. It was one of the main reasons they almost lost in the semifinals of the CUSA tournament, where they shot 11-20. They only shoot 65.4% from the stripe, which ranks 364th in the country.
Liberty’s free-throw shooting is one of the main reasons I think the Ducks get the win. Those opportunities have to be taken advantage of in these games, and I don’t trust Liberty to do so. I also think the travel differences could be a factor.
Liberty is 5-0 against the spread as an underdog and Oregon is 11-14 ATS as a favorite.
