McNeese absolutely wreaked havoc on Clemson in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday and looks to do so again vs. Purdue.
The Cowboys (28-6) held Clemson to 13 first-half points and hung on for a 69-67 victory. It was the first-ever NCAA tourney win in program history.
Although the Cowboys did allow the Tigers to rally late, the game wasn’t as close as the two-point outcome suggests. And despite shooting 4-for-19 from the 3-point line and 50% (11-22) from the free-throw line, McNeese was in control of the entire game, mainly behind its ability to control the glass and the paint. They did so while being undersized. The Cowboys outscored the Tigers 44-24 in the paint.
Purdue survived against 13th-seeded High Point, pulling away late for a 75-63 victory in its first-round contest. HPU continued to threaten in the second half and kept the score within single digits for nearly the entire game, but just couldn’t get enough stops down the stretch.
There’s no doubt McNeese’s confidence is sky-high right now, meaning Purdue better be much more ready to play than Clemson was.
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McNeese vs. Purdue Odds
Purdue is a 5.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against McNeese while the Over/Under is at 143.5 points.
The Moneyline for McNeese is at +220 and -250 for Clemson.
McNeese vs. Purdue Channel
The NCAA Tournament matchup between McNeese and Purdue will be televised on CBS.
This Midwest Regional contest tips off at 12:10 p.m. ET Saturday in Providence.
McNeese vs. Purdue Prediction
I predict McNeese gets the win and advances to the Sweet 16. I also predict this game goes under 144.5 points.
McNeese simply just wanted that win more than Clemson, and I think they’ll want this one more than Purdue — as long as they don’t get complacent. I don’t think they will.
The Cowboys are typically a good 3-point shooting team (35.2%), but controlling the paint was a point of emphasis against Clemson. It worked, and I expect them to have that same type of attack against Purdue, especially because Purdue has a strong 3-point defense (30.9%).
Per KenPom, the Boilermakers don’t protect the rim very well and rank 348th in the country in two-point field-goal percentage (56.3%). That could benefit a McNeese team that doesn’t have a ton of size. Much like McNeese, the Boilermakers controlled the paint against High Point, outscoring the Panthers 38-22 inside and outrebounding them 45-24. We’ll see if Purdue can contain the much more athletic Cowboys from getting offensive rebounds and playing their loose transition game that resembles a pick-up game at the local park.
McNeese thrives when forcing live ball turnovers, but I didn’t anticipate them forcing a ton of those against Clemson and its First-Team All-ACC veteran guard Chase Hunter. They forced him into four and Clemson had 13 turnovers as a team, which led to 19 McNeese points.
I don’t expect Purdue point guard Braden Smith to cough up the ball as much, but the Cowboys may be able to hinder his playmaking ability with how active they are defensively.
The main thing that worries me about backing McNeese is Trey Kaufman-Renn. The 6-foot-9 junior is very poised in the key and I don’t think McNeese has anybody who can guard him. High Point had no answer for him as he finished with 21 points, eight rebounds, and was 10-for-16 from the field.
Kaufman-Renn averages 20.2 points and 6.3 rebounds per game and shoots 60% from the field. Smith adds 16.1 PPG and led the Big Ten with 8.7 APG.
McNeese’s leading scorer, Javohn Garcia, scores 12.9 PPG but only had three points in the win over Clemson. It was a positive sign he struggled but the Cowboys still had no problems scoring. Brandon Murray played his best game of the season when they needed him most and finished with 21 points. He averages 7.6 PPG.
The Boilermakers looked a little vulnerable at times against HPU and vibes are high in the McNeese locker room (despite the news of Will Wade going to NC State getting out prior to the game). I like the Cowboys to keep it rolling.
McNeese is 3-0 against the spread as an underdog and Purdue is 15-11 as a favorite.
