Saint Mary’s will try to continue making its case on why it’s the best team in the West Coast Conference tonight when it visits San Francisco.
The Gaels are coming off a 62-58 win over Gonzaga that gave them some breathing room at the top of the conference standings. SMC is 20-3 overall and 10-0 in WCC play.
San Francisco (18-6, 8-3) is in second place in the conference and picked up a 75-51 victory over Washington State in its last game. The Dons’ defense played great against a good WSU offense.
USF even secured that win without its best player, all-conference wing Malik Thomas. It was announced just minutes before the game that Thomas would be out with an injury, and it isn’t clear if he’ll be playing tonight, making this an even tougher game for the Dons.
These teams met on Jan. 23 where SMC won, 71-51.
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Saint Mary’s at San Francisco Odds
Saint Mary’s is a 5.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against San Francisco while the Over/Under is at 131.5 points.
The Moneyline for Saint Mary’s is at -255 and at +220 for San Francisco.
Saint Mary’s at San Francisco On TV
The matchup between Saint Mary’s and San Francisco will be televised on ESPN2.
Tonight’s game tips off at 9 p.m. ET.
Saint Mary’s at San Francisco Prediction
I predict Saint Mary’s to cover the 5.5-point spread as a road favorite. I also predict for this game to go under 131.5 points.
This prediction is based on the assumption that Thomas will be out tonight. If he plays, I still think SMC can cover the spread, but the total has a much better chance of going over. If it’s announced he’s playing (or not), these lines are likely to slightly move.
Thomas’ 19.7 points per game lead the league and he is one of only two players to average double-digits on USF’s roster. Marcus Williams averages 14.1 PPG and dishes out 4.4 assists per night while Tyrone Riley IV averages 9.9 points and 5.3 RPG.
The Dons will need a repeat defensive effort from their win over Wazzu if they want a chance in this one. Behind only Saint Mary’s (60.8 PPG), USF is second in the conference and allowing 67 PPG. The Dons guard the 3-point line well and force a league-high 13.4 turnovers per game.
USF will have a challenge against this SMC offense, though, particularly the pick-and-roll with Augustas Marciulionis and Mitchell Saxen. The duo runs it to perfection nearly every time and it consistently creates easy shots for the entire offense. Marciulionis leads the team with 13.4 PPG and 5.8 APG.
Saxen — a two-time All-WCC first-teamer — averages 10.4 points and 7.9 RPG. He’s also the reigning WCC Defensive Player of the Year and leads a stout Gaels defense. Paulius Murauskas is another all-conference caliber player for the Gaels and averages 13.1 PPG and 8.9 RPG, which leads the league.
SMC’s defense has really picked it up since the calendar turned and is allowing just 55.9 PPG in WCC play. Only one conference team (WSU) has scored more than 60 points against the Gaels. Per KenPom, they have an adjusted defensive efficiency of 89.2 in conference games and allow an effective field-goal percentage of 43.4%. Both are the best in the league.
The Gaels are also one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. Their rebounding margin of +10 ranks third in Division I. They grab an offensive rebound on 41.7% of opportunities, which is second-best in the country.
This a revenge spot for a great USF squad at home against the top team in the league, so backing SMC is tough. However, I think the Gaels control the game and can cover the spread with some late free throws — especially if Thomas is out.
SMC is 9-11 against the spread as a favorite and USF is 1-4-1 ATS as an underdog. The total is 10-9-1 while SMC is a favorite and 2-4 while the Dons are underdogs.
