This will be the second meeting between these teams in the last two weeks. San Diego State beat Air Force 67-38 when it traveled to Viejas Arena on Jan. 8. The Falcons led 20-8 with 11 minutes remaining in the first half, but were outscored 59-18 from that point on.
Now, Air Force (3-15 overall, 0-7 Mountain West) will look to get some revenge and end their eight-game losing skid.
Meanwhile, the Aztecs (11-5, 4-3) have had a bumpy conference slate and are coming off a home loss to UNLV. The Rebels led for nearly the entire contest as SDSU dropped its fourth home game of the season. A rarity for the Aztecs to lose that many home games, especially this early in the season.
Still, Brian Dutcher’s squads are never to be taken lightly and I’m sure are eager to bounce back here with a victory as they try to work their way back up the conference standings. They’re in sixth place in the MW while the Falcons are in last.
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
San Diego State at Air Force Betting Odds
San Diego State is a 12.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Air Force while the Over/Under is at 126.5.
The Moneyline for San Diego State is at -1100 and at +675 for Air Force.
San Diego State at Air Force On TV
The matchup between San Diego State and Air Force will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 10 p.m. ET.
San Diego State at Air Force Prediction
I predict San Diego State will cover the 12.5-point spread. I also predict this game will go over 126.5 points.
The Aztecs are the best defensive team in the Mountain West and will be going up against the worst offense in the league. As you can tell by the score of the last meeting between these two teams, the Falcons struggled to find the bottom of the net. They average just 63.2 points per game and haven’t scored more than 65 points since Dec. 16.
It’ll be surprising if they eclipse that number again here, going up against a defense that allows an effective field-goal percentage of 43.4%, which ranks eighth in the country, according to KenPom.
The Falcons run a matchup-zone defense, which is a defense the Aztecs struggled against earlier this season in losses to UC San Diego and Utah State. It seemed like they figured out how to approach that defense against AF, though. I expect them to, again, have no troubles against this defense this time around.
One reason is because the Aztecs force a lot of turnovers and can get out on fast breaks before the Falcons can get set up in their defense. SDSU forces nearly 14 turnovers per contest and had 24 points off of turnovers in the Jan. 8 matchup. The Aztecs block a shot on 18.1% of opponents’ possessions, which ranks third in the country. This should also allow them to get out and run the floor.
This is why I anticipate the over to be the play here — because the Aztecs should have no problem scoring and could easily put up 70-plus. All Air Force would need to do is score in the 50s for this low total to cash.
SDSU is led by sophomore wing Miles Byrd, who is averaging 14.7 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. He also snags two steals per game. The Aztecs’ front court of Jared Coleman-Jones and Magoon Gwath are physical and protect the rim really well. I expect their physicality — and the Aztecs’ physicality defensively — to have an impact against this young Falcons roster.
The Falcons start one freshman and two sophomores, and rely on three freshmen and another sophomore off the bench. Senior Ethan Taylor leads the team in scoring (14.8 PPG), rebounding (5.8 RPG), assists (4.1 APG), and steals (1.9 SPG).
Air Force might jump out to an early lead like it did in the previous meeting, but expect SDSU to wake up, brush off its travel fatigue and pick up a double-digit conference win.
SDSU is 4-1 against the spread on the road while AF is 3-7 ATS at home.
