After losing five games in a row in this I-75 rivalry, Bowling Green was victorious the last time it met Toledo.
The Falcons (7-11 overall, 2-4 in MAC) look to make it two in a row in this series while ending its current two-game skid. BGSU lost by six to Eastern Michigan at home last week before falling at Miami (Ohio), 84-76, on Tuesday.
Toledo (10-8, 4-2) is also looking to get back on the winning path after falling to Kent State, 83-64, its last time out. The Rockets are tied for third in the conference standings while the Falcons sit tied for eighth.
A win here would be crucial for either team as they look to string some wins together heading into February and the thick of conference play.
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Toledo at Bowling Green Betting Odds
Toledo is a 2.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Bowling Green while the Over/Under is at 158.5.
The Moneyline for Toledo is at -140 and at +125 for Bowling Green.
Toledo at Bowling Green On TV
The matchup between Toledo and Bowling Green will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 6 p.m. ET.
Toledo at Bowling Green Prediction
I predict Bowling Green will cover the 2.5-point spread as a home underdog. I also predict this game will go over 158.5 points.
For the over to cash, one of these teams will need to score at least 80 points. Because of this, I was reluctant to roll with the over because it can be hard to trust a team to score at that rate.
But because of how these defenses have played this season — and because there are a number of guys on both sides that can score — I think this will be a high-scoring affair.
The Rockets are allowing 77.8 points per game while the Falcons are surrendering 75.2 PPG. Per KenPom, BGSU’s adjusted defensive efficiency is 111.4, which ranks 278th in the country. Toledo’s ADE is 114.9 (333rd). Neither team protects the rim very well and both tend to give up easy looks.
In their loss to Miami, the Falcons allowed the RedHawks to shoot 53.4% from the field. In its last game, Toledo allowed Kent State to shoot 56.6% from the field.
Defense should be the emphasis for both teams after those performances, but I still anticipate this to turn into a fast-paced game where shots are falling. Toledo ranks 88th in the country in adjusted tempo (69.0) and BGSU ranks 66th (69.5).
I don’t anticipate there being any trouble scoring for either offense.
Toledo is averaging 77.5 PPG while BGSU is averaging 76.6 PPG. Both teams attack the rim and get to the free-throw line, so there should be a fair amount of points coming from the stripe.
Both teams have four guys that are averaging double-digit points.
Falcons guard Marcus Johnson has been one of the best scorers in the MAC this season. The Division II transfer leads the league with 16.4 PPG and he’s shooting 46% from the field and 40% from outside. Six-foot guard Trey Thomas is averaging 11.7 PPG on the season, but 17.7 PPG in league play. Derrick Butler and Javontae Campbell average 14.3 and 13.9 PPG.
Toledo’s Javan Simmons and Sonny Wilson are two of the most efficient scorers in the league. Simmons is averaging 12.6 PPG on 56% shooting and his 8.7 RPG in MAC play ranks second. Wilson is averaging 15.2 PPG on 51.7% shooting. Sophomore wing Sam Lewis is averaging 14.3 points and 5.3 RPG.
I think the Falcons are hungrier for a win here. They’re currently outside of the MAC tournament picture and despite losing their last two games, the effort was there.
This is a tough game to gauge and the Rockets could pull away late, but it’s hard to not back the home underdog in a Friday night conference game.
Toledo is 9-8 against the spread this season and BGSU is 7-8-1. The over is 9-8 in Toledo’s games and 9-7 in the BGSU’s.
