East Carolina looks to get to .500 in conference play when it hosts UAB tonight.
The Pirates (13-11 overall, 5-6 AAC) are coming off an 80-79 victory over UTSA, finding a way to win by forcing two turnovers and scoring five points in the final 17 seconds of the game. ECU forward C.J. Walker got the go-ahead bucket to fall from the middle of the key with four seconds left.
It was a much-needed win for ECU, who suffered a pair of tough losses to Temple and Rice the week prior. Things don’t get much easier tonight against UAB, though.
The Blazers (15-8, 8-2) are on a three-game win streak and defeated North Texas 64-61 last Monday. They are alone in second place in the AAC behind Memphis.
With UAB’s most recent game coming eight days ago, it should be well-rested for this meeting, while ECU is coming off an exhausting win.
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UAB at East Carolina Odds
UAB is a 1.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against East Carolina while the Over/Under is at 152.5 points.
The Moneyline for UAB is at -130 and at +120 for East Carolina.
UAB at East Carolina On TV
The matchup between UAB and East Carolina will be televised on ESPNU.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
UAB at East Carolina Prediction
I predict UAB will get the win here. I also predict this game will go over 152.5 points.
Three of the top six scorers in the American will be featured in this matchup. Walker averages 18.2 points per game while teammate RJ Felton averages 17.6 PPG. Both guys grab seven rebounds per game.
UAB senior forward and potential AAC Player of the Year, Yaxel Lendeborg, is averaging a double-double with 17.6 PPG and 10.5 RPG. The Blazers are the highest-scoring team in the conference, averaging 83.7 PPG while ECU averages 75.7 PPG.
And because neither of these defenses are great, I expect there to be a lot of points scored.
Per KenPom, these are the fifth- and sixth-ranked defenses in the AAC in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Pirates have an ADE of 107.8 while the Blazers’ is 107.9. East Carolina allows 72.7 PPG, and UAB surrenders 75.5.
One area the Pirates really struggle, though, is around the perimeter — both offensively and defensively. They’re the worst 3-point shooting team in the conference, only shooting 29.5% from the outside. They’re allowing opponents to shoot 37% from 3, which is the second-worst mark in the AAC.
UAB isn’t the greatest shooting team, but the Blazers can knock down open 3s and are shooting 36% from deep during conference play.
This is important because the Pirates like to play zone defense at times, and I expect them to give it a look in order to make things difficult for Lendeborg in the paint. However, he should be able to find open shooters if this were to happen. He is averaging 4.3 assists per game.
On the other side of the ball, UAB might also try to pack the paint and force ECU to at least try and make some 3s. They’ll likely need to knock them down if they want to stay in this game.
Both teams love to score from around 15 feet and in, so expect both defenses to try and take those areas away. Whoever can knock down outside shots and get out in transition will be more successful. I think it’ll be the Blazers.
UAB is 5-3 against the spread on the road while ECU is 5-7-1 ATS at home. The over is 10-8 when UAB is a favorite and 6-2 when ECU is an underdog.
