One of the final games of the day could very well be one of the best games of the day when UC Irvine travels south to visit UC San Diego.
Both of these teams are 14-2 overall and 4-0 in Big West play, meaning the winner will sit alone atop of the conference.
The Tritons come into this matchup on a 12-game winning streak — currently the longest in the nation — and have defeated their last three opponents by a combined 114 points. The Anteaters have won their last four, covering the spread as a favorite in each of them.
As it should be, LionTree Arena is sold out for this Saturday night matchup and those in attendance should be in for a treat. This is the Tritons’ first-ever nationally televised broadcast, per UCSD Athletics.
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UC Irvine at UC San Diego Betting Odds
UC San Diego is a 6.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against UC Irvine while the Over/Under is at 139.5.
The Moneyline for UCSD is at -255 and at +220 for UCI.
UC Irvine at UC San Diego On TV
The matchup between UCSD and UCI will be televised on ESPNU.
Tonight’s game tips off at 10 p.m. ET.
UC Irvine at UC San Diego Prediction
I predict UC Irvine will cover the 6.5-point spread as a road underdog. I also predict this game will go under 139.5 points.
The Tritons just held Cal Poly — which was the highest-scoring team in the league — to 68 points in their 27-point victory. They own the best scoring defense in the league (62.2 points per game) and their adjusted defensive efficiency of 100.2 ranks 72nd in the country, according to KenPom.
The only team in the conference whose defense is better is Irvine’s. Their ADE of 93.4 ranks 13th in the country and first in the league. The Anteaters are also allowing just 64.6 points per outing.
UCSD ranks 60th in KenPom’s net rating and Irvine ranks 63rd.
This has all the makings of being a clean basketball game where whichever team makes the fewest mistakes wins. I know that should always be the case, but it often isn’t. Not all teams take advantage of opponents’ mishaps like both of these teams do.
One thing to watch is if the UCSD defense can continue to force turnovers, especially when the Anteaters’ turn to their young frontcourt players off the bench. Tritons senior guards Hayden Gray and Tyler McGhie will put pressure on the Anteaters’ ball handlers and make it difficult for them to get set up in their offense.
Gray leads the country in steals (62) steals per game (3.9) while UCSD forces 17.4 turnovers per game. They cough the ball up only 9.2 times per outing.
UCSD forces a turnover on 24.7% of its opponents’ possessions, which is fourth-best in the country.
The Anteaters turn the ball over on 19.3% of their possessions, which worries me a little bit but if they can limit the turnovers and value possessions, they should be fine.
Tritons senior forward Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is one of the best scorers in the league, but I think the Anteaters are capable of slowing him down. He leads the nation in free-throw attempts (137) and is fourth in the Big West in scoring (18.1 PPG). He has only made two shots from 3-point range.
The Anteaters play great defense without fouling and their opponents’ free-throw rate per possession is 20.3%, which ranks second in the country. I don’t anticipate the Tritons getting any easy points in this game.
I know UCSD is playing great right now and should have a terrific home-court advantage, but I expect the Anteaters to show up and keep it close in a defensive battle.
UC Irvine is 11-4 against the spread this season while UCSD is 11-3. The over is 4-11 in the Anteaters’ contests and 0-2 while they have been an underdog.
