For its second game in a row, UC San Diego will look to avenge one of its two conference losses when it visits UC Irvine tonight.
The Tritons defeated UC Riverside by 20 on Thursday to improve to 19-4 overall and 9-2 in Big West play. It was a revenge spot after falling to UC Riverside on Jan. 18. The Tritons lost at home to UC Irvine, 60-52, a week prior.
After suffering its only conference loss at UC Riverside in an 84-80 overtime defeat, UCI (20-3, 10-1) has won its last three.
These teams are first and second in the Big West standings, making this arguably the biggest regular-season game in the conference this season.
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UC San Diego at UC Irvine Odds
UC San Diego is a 1.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against UC Irvine while the Over/Under is at 141.5.
The Moneyline for UC San Diego is at -111 and at -108 for UC Irvine.
UC San Diego at UC Irvine On TV
The matchup between UC San Diego and UC Irvine will be televised on ESPNU.
Tonight’s game tips off at 10 p.m. ET.
UC San Diego at UC Irvine Prediction
I predict UC San Diego gets the win. I also predict this game will go under 141.5 points.
The last time these teams played, UCI did an excellent job of taking away the Tritons’ two biggest offensive strengths — Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones getting to the free-throw line, and Tyler McGhie knocking down 3s.
Tait-Jones leads the country in free throws attempted (199) and free throws made (161), and leads UCSD with 19.9 points per game. McGhie is 13th in the country with 201 3-point attempts. He knocks them down at a 40% clip and scores 17.3 PPG.
In the first meeting, Tait-Jones only had six free-throw attempts and McGhie was 0-for-2 from the arc. The Anteaters had a player face-guarding McGhie for nearly the entire game, not allowing him to get any space or even touch the ball. They also set 7-foot-1 Bent Leuchten right in the middle of the paint while the other three defenders played sort of a zone defense.
It worked.
I anticipate coach Eric Olen and the Tritons will have a better counter to this approach if it happens again. I anticipate UCSD’s defense will be even more locked in than it usually is for this game.
These are the two best defensive teams in the league and UCSD allows a league-best 62.8 PPG. Per KenPom, the Tritons have an adjusted defensive efficiency of 94.8, which ranks only behind UCI (91.5). UCSD is second in the nation with 10.7 steals per game and senior guard Hayden Gray is one of the best defenders in the country, ranking first with 3.52 SPG.
Leuchten caused a lot of problems for the Tritons in the first meeting. They struggled to guard him as he dominated down the stretch and finished with 23 points, 13 rebounds, and went 9-for-9 from the stripe. He averages 15.7 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. Devin Tillis averages 13.4 and eight RPG, while Myles Che and Justin Hohn both chip in 12 PPG.
The Tritons like to play fast and are the second-highest scoring offense in the league (80.3 PPG). Being able to force turnovers and tough shots to get up the floor without UCI’s defense getting set up will be key. I think they’ll be able to accomplish this, and that Tait-Jones might be able to get Leuchten in some foul trouble.
I also think the Tritons want this win just a little bit more than the Anteaters.
UC San Diego is 8-2 against the spread on the road and UC Irvine is 7-2 ATS at home. The over is 0-3 when the Anteaters are an underdog.
