UNC Greensboro will put its four-game win streak on the line tonight when it visits ETSU.
The streak has put the Spartans into a tie for first place with Chattanooga in the Southern Conference standings. They are 18-9 overall, 11-3 in league play, and coming off a 58-50 road victory over Furman where they showed why they’re the best defense in the conference.
ETSU (15-12, 8-6) has dropped two in a row and is tied with Wofford for fourth in the SoCon.
The Buccaneers played their last game without two of their top three scorers in Jaden Seymour and John Buggs III. Whether or not those guys will be available tonight could dictate the winner of this one.
UNC Greensboro at ETSU Odds
ETSU is a 1.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against UNC Greensboro while the Over/Under is at 134.5.
The Moneyline for UNC Greensboro is at +105 and at -125 for ETSU.
UNC Greensboro at ETSU On TV
The matchup between UNC Greensboro and ETSU will be televised on ESPNU.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET.
UNC Greensboro at ETSU Prediction
I predict UNCG covers the 1.5-point spread. I also predict for this game to go under 134.5 points.
On Monday’s ETSU Radio Coaches Show, via the ETSU Athletics Facebook page, Bucs coach Brooks Savage said he “can’t tell the gamblers anything” about the injuries of Seymour and Buggs, but he did acknowledge that they’re day-to-day. Seymour is dealing with an upper leg injury and Buggs is recovering from a concussion. My guess is that Seymour will give it a go, but Buggs may have to miss another game.
Savage also mentioned on the radio show how he would like ETSU’s games to be played in the least amount of possessions possible, even less than the low-possession games the Bucs played last week.
Per KenPom, the Bucs have an adjusted tempo of 65.6, which is 282nd in the country. This style of play, matched with both teams’ solid defenses, makes me think the first team to 60 wins this game — if they even get to that number.
UNCG allows a league-best 64 points per game and has a defensive effective field-goal percentage of 48.2% in conference play. ETSU’s 67.2 PPG allowed is the second-best mark in the league and it allows an effective FG% of 50.1.
There likely aren’t going to be any easy buckets in this game, especially if the Bucs are able to defend the Spartans’ pick-and-roll well and limit them from getting out into transition.
UNCG likes to use its athleticism both out in space but also in its half-court offense by running a lot of pick-and-roll actions. It creates easy opportunities both inside and on the perimeter. The Spartans have an effective field-goal percentage of 53.7% and shoot 38.4% from 3. Both are the second-best marks in the league.
Kenyon Giles leads UNCG with 15.6 PPG while Donovan Atwell averages 14 PPG. Ronald Polite III adds 13.8 points and 3.5 assists per game.
Not only are Seymour’s 17 PPG the second-most on ETSU’s roster, but it also ranks second in the SoCon. He also pulls down 7.1 RPG. Teammate Quimari Peterson leads the league with 18.8 PPG and Buggs averages 11.4 PPG.
If both Seymour and Buggs are unable to play, I don’t know if there will be enough offense for the Bucs to overcome UNCG’s defense.
ETSU will be hungry for a win here but I think the Spartans are playing arguably their best basketball of the season right now and are currently in control of the No. 1 seed in the SoCon tournament. They’re going to do what they can to keep it.
UNCG is 6-2 against the spread as an underdog and ETSU is 7-7-3 as a favorite. The over is 4-4 when UNCG is an underdog and 7-10 when the Bucs are a favorite.
