College Basketball: Akron at Troy Prediction, Odds, And How To Watch

The MAC-Sun Belt hoops challenge will produce a few great matchups today, and Akron visiting Troy is one of them.

This segment of the MAC-SBC challenge features a pair of NCAA tournament teams from last year. Both squads won their respective league tournaments before losing in the first round of the NCAA tourney.

The Trojans (16-8 overall, 9-3 Sun Belt) sit atop their conference standings, but suffered a setback with back-to-back losses to James Madison and App State last week. They bounced back by grinding out a win over Georgia State on Wednesday. 

Akron (19-4, 10-1 MAC) carries the nation’s seventh-longest winning streak in this game after defeating Eastern Michigan by two earlier this week for its ninth-consecutive victory. That was the only MAC game that the Zips haven’t won by double-digits. 

Akron at Troy Odds

As of this writing, Akron is a 4.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Troy, while the Over/Under is 155.5 points.

The Moneyline for Akron is -192 and +160 for Troy.

Akron at Troy on TV

The matchup between Akron and Troy will be televised on ESPN2.

Tonight’s game tips off at 6 p.m. ET.

Akron at Troy Prediction

I predict Akron covers the 4.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes over 155.5 points.

The Zips want to play fast and push the ball up the court as quickly as possible. I expect the Trojans will try to slow the game down and control the pace. I don’t think it’ll work.

Per KenPom, the Zips play at an adjusted tempo of 70.6 (possessions per 40 minutes) while Troy’s adjusted tempo is 65.9.

Victor Valdes does an excellent job of orchestrating Troy’s offense and creating quality looks for his teammates. The 6-foot-7 point forward is fluid, doesn’t get sped up, and is averaging 5.3 assists per game in league play. Troy likes to initiate its offense with him in a high-ball screen, and he’s a big reason the Trojans’ adjusted offensive efficiency of 115.5 is the best in the conference.

However, I think Akron’s length and athleticism will create some issues on both sides of the ball for the Trojans.

The Zips’ defense is solid and is only allowing opponents to shoot 41.9% from the field, which is the best in the league. They’ve been the best defense in the MAC for most of the year. Troy really struggled against another solid defensive team when it lost 66-44 to App State. 

I think Akron will force enough missed shots and turnovers to get out and run the floor like they want to. They’re averaging 90.4 PPG and have an effective field-goal percentage of 58.8%, which is the eighth-best in the country. Their 19.4 assists per game are the fifth-most. 

Six-foot senior guard Tavari Johnson leads the MAC with 20.1 points per game and is third with 5.4 APG. Forward Amani Lyles is averaging 14.7 points and 7.4 rebounds per game for the Zips. He’s a matchup nightmare because of his ability to pass out of the post and stretch the floor.

Lyles’ presence on the glass will be important against the Trojans and junior forward Thomas Dowd, who leads the Sun Belt with 10.5 RPG and 3.2 offensive boards a game. Dowd also averages 15 PPG while Valdes averages 15.8.

The Trojans are averaging 83.3 PPG and have a balanced offense with all starters scoring 10+ PPG, but don’t get a ton of offensive production from their reserves. I think Akron’s depth will also give it an advantage.

I think Troy’s patience offensively will allow it to knock down enough shots to keep this game close. But in the end, Akron will turn too many empty Troy possessions into points to pull away.