American Conference Basketball Tournament: Preview, Odds, And Predictions

The American Conference basketball tournament has a chance to be one of the most compelling simply because this could end up being a one-bid league.

According to KenPom, regular-season champion South Florida (23-8, 15-3) was the highest-ranked American Conference team, but the Bulls were only 51st through Sunday’s games. It would be tough to be an at-large team with that type of rating.

So, South Florida will be playing for its tournament life. At least the Bulls will enter the tournament with some serious momentum, riding a nine-game winning streak. By winning its second American Conference regular-season title in three years, South Florida will have a bye until the semifinals, a big advantage.

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No. 2 seed Wichita State (21-10, 13-5) also receives a bye into the semifinals. No. 3 Tulsa (25-5, 12-5) and No. 4 UAB (20-11, 11-7) receive a bye to the quarterfinals.

Last year, Memphis won the regular season and conference tournament titles. The Tigers were the preseason favorites, but have been horribly inconsistent during a 13-18, 8-10 season that landed a No. 8 seed. 

Despite being a No. 8 seed, Memphis has the fifth-best odds, according to BetMGM.

The tournament will be staged at Legacy Arena at the BJCC in Birmingham, Alabama. The first round is on Wednesday, followed by Thursday’s second round. Quarterfinal play is Friday with the semifinals on Saturday and the championship on Sunday at 3:15 p.m. ET.

In American Conference games only, South Florida and Wichita State are in the top five in both scoring offense and scoring defense. South Florida is the leader, averaging 86.4 points in its 18 American Conference games. Wichita State is third (78.5) behind Tulsa (83.6).

On the defensive side, Wichita State is fourth, allowing 73.4 points per game, while South Florida is fifth at 75.2.

American Conference Basketball Tournament Odds

American Conference Basketball Tournament Predictions

This is certainly not a daring pick, but I am going with South Florida to emerge as the champion.

The American incentivizes the regular season by having the top two seeds earn byes until the semifinals. There are 13 teams in the American, but only 10 qualified for the tournament.

Besides being the two best teams in the regular season, having to play just two games to win the title is a big edge for South Florida and Wichita State.

Besides Wichita State, No. 3 Tulsa will be dangerous. The Golden Hurricane leads the American in three-point shooting in conference games (.395) while placing fifth in three-point percentage defense (.323). No other team is in the top five in both categories. Tulsa also has the two leading three-point shooters in conference games. Ade Popoola, a 6-foot-5 junior, leads at .419, and 6-foot-2 senior Miles Barnstable is second (.407).

While UAB is the No. 4 seed, the fact that the tournament is in Birmingham gives UAB an obvious advantage. Could we call the Blazers a dark horse?

For what it is worth, South Florida and UAB split the season series, each winning on the other’s home court. UAB won a 109-106 double overtime decision at USF on Jan. 4. South Florida returned the favor on Jan. 22 by winning 82-69 at UAB. That ended a seven-game losing streak against the Blazers.

South Florida’s other two American Conference losses were Jan. 18 at home to Wichita State in an 86-85 overtime defeat, and Jan. 31 at Temple, 79-78.

That means South Florida lost its three conference games by a total of five points, of which two went into overtime. That seems to show that despite the parity this year in the conference, the Bulls will be difficult to beat.

In addition, USF is 9-3 on the road, although just 1-3 on neutral courts.

Wichita State also enters the tournament on a roll, having won six consecutive games. Three of those wins were by six or fewer points, showing that very little has been easy in the American, even for the contenders.