The top two seeds in last year’s Atlantic 10 conference tournament met in the championship game, where top-seeded VCU defeated George Mason. The Rams earned their second conference tournament title in three seasons.
VCU and GMU both earned a share of the regular-season title after finishing 15-3 in league play. It was the Rams’ third regular-season crown since 2019.
This year, the Rams are again among the favorites to win the A-10 regular-season title.
As of this writing, college basketball betting odds have VCU at +600 to win the conference, which is tied with Dayton for the second-shortest odds. Saint Louis is the favorite at -175.
Saint Louis picked up a big win at VCU on Jan. 7, which was an early conference game that could have big ramifications down the stretch. It was the Billikens’ first win at the Siegel Center in 11 trips.
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Atlantic 10 Conference Basketball Odds (Regular-Season Champion)
Saint Louis -175
VCU +600
Dayton +600
George Mason +800
George Washington +800
St. Bonaventure +8000
Davidson +8000
Richmond +8000
Duquesne +20000
Rhode Island +25000
Saint Joseph’s +25000
Loyola Chicago +25000
La Salle +25000
Fordham +25000
Saint Louis Basketball Outlook
Based on the regular-season champion odds, there are only five teams that have a real shot at finishing the season atop the A-10 standings.
Especially with its win over VCU, the Billikens look like the team to beat. They outlasted the Rams in a track meet that didn’t result in many points.
I think it was important to see the Billikens could still win even when their shots aren’t falling and they’re scoring 20-less points than what they average.
SLU is 14-1, and their only loss this year came to Stanford by one point. It has quality wins over Santa Clara, Grand Canyon, San Francisco, and now VCU. All but two of their victories have come by double-digits, and they boast one of the most efficient offenses and one of the most effective defenses not just in the league, but in the country.
Head coach Josh Schertz’s squad has depth, seems very poised, and is playing excellent right now.
VCU Basketball Outlook
As for VCU, the Rams have dropped their toughest contests so far this year, which include losses to Vanderbilt, Utah State, and NC State. I think it’ll be hard to trust them to win a second consecutive conference title if they’re unable to close out tight games, because there will surely be plenty more on tap.
VCU has had the same starting lineup all season, though, and head coach Phil Martelli Jr. proved his teams could win those types of games while at Bryant and en route to the NCAA Tournament last year, so perhaps they start finding ways to pull through. It’ll be impressive if the Rams are able to win a regular-season title in Martelli’s first season.
Dayton Basketball Outlook
I’m a firm believer in experience being invaluable in college basketball, especially in the postseason. Dayton has the experience that could carry them to a regular-season title and perhaps an A-10 tournament title as well.
The Flyers have been dealing with injuries this season, and namely to one of their top players in sophomore forward Amael L’Etang. Still, they’ve found ways to win with him sidelined.
The rest of the A-10 will have trouble trying to overcome Dayton’s disruptive defense throughout conference play. The Flyers already picked up a big league win over George Washington, where they forced 22 turnovers.
George Washington Basketball Outlook
For the Revolutionaries, they have arguably the deepest team in the conference with eight players who are averaging 20+ minutes. They returned four players who earned preseason all-conference honors.
George Washington also has one of the best front courts in the league, led by Rafael Castro, who will be in the conversation for the A-10 Player of the Year. The Revs’ ability to score and control the glass already makes them dangerous. If their defense improves just a little, they might become the team to beat in the league.
George Mason Basketball Outlook
Even after replacing last year’s A-10 Defensive Player of the Year and most of its production, George Mason hasn’t skipped a beat, and its defense remains one of the toughest in the league.
The Patriots are 14-1 and are allowing 66 points per game this season. Their defense could very well propel them to another league championship, and they also boast a ton of experience and a group of athletic guards that can create matchup problems, led by Kory Mincy.
GMU has a favorable conference schedule as well.
Atlantic 10 Conference Basketball Predictions
It’s hard to bet against Saint Louis right now, but at this point in the season, it’s worth taking a shot on a contender with longer odds.
In that case, I like George Mason to continue to improve and take advantage of its schedule. I’m also more comfortable backing a team whose defense is always going to show up.
Although it has already lost to Dayton, I think George Washington could also surprise some people down the stretch, and I think their returning chemistry and production will be pivotal. It will need to win some tough road games going forward, though.
Both of these programs offer some value at 8/1 odds.
