The college sports world has been scrambling over the past couple years as most of the Pac-12 teams decided to leave the conference. While several factors are at play, money and media deals have been key among them.
And now, after those programs decided to move on, the Group of Five leagues have been affected. The teams left in the Pac-12 had limited options ahead of them, but they still found a path forward.
Here’s a look at what has happened in the college football landscape and how it has impacted the G5.
Texas State Emerges As Top Target For Pac-12
Texas State is the primary target to become the Pac-12’s eighth full-time member, according to a report from ESPN. If that invitation were to be extended, it seems likely Texas State would take it.
Texas State has long been rumored to be a candidate for Pac-12 expansion. It would give the conference a foothold in the Lone Star State, for starters.
It’s also a solid university by several metrics, and the football team has shown growth in the past couple years. In the two seasons that GJ Kinne has been the head coach, the Bobcats have gone 8-5 in both 2023 and 2024, ending both of those seasons with bowl victories.
La Tech could be looking at an invite from the Sun Belt in the near future and Conference USA would then look at Tarleton State, per the ESPN report, if Texas State were to leave for the Pac-12.
New Pac-12 Media Deal
The Pac-12’s impending media deal will reportedly pay schools between $4 million and $10 million per year, but that’s a wide range and much still needs to be sorted out.
Pac-12 teams are looking to earn more than the $4 million per team per year payout that came with the Mountain West media deal, according to ESPN. But it appears it will be below $10 million per year, which was pitched when the Pac-12 began looking for new members.
The financial details of the Pac-12’s future media deal has yet to be hammered out. However, it’s expected to involve multiple outlets.
The Pac-12, with two teams in 2025, will have games on the CW, ESPN, and CBS. But that may not be the case in 2026 and beyond.
Sacramento State-FBS Efforts Hit Obstacle
Sac State filed an application to transition to the FBS as an independent program with the NCAA. The school is seeking for its last season in the Big Sky to be this year, which would mean it would be ineligible for postseason play in 2025 and 2026.
However, the NCAA Football Oversight Committee recommended to the Division I Council that it not support Sac State’s waiver request, per a report by Yahoo Sports. The DI Council has the ultimate decision-making power in this instance.
“The committee reviewed the application and waiver submitted by California State University, Sacramento, to enter the FCS to FBS reclassification process for the 2025-26 academic year,” the FBS Oversight Committee said. “The committee recommends the NCAA Division I Council deny the institution’s request to waive the required bona fide invitation from an active FBS conference. The committee noted a conference invitation is of paramount importance for entering into the reclassification process because the invitation signals an institution’s readiness to enter the process.
“Although a waiver of the bona fide invitation requirement was granted in 2017, that decision was made in a different era, under a different set of facts and rules. The Division I membership adopted the current legislation to affirm the importance of the nature and purpose of the subdivision reclassification process, choosing to place that decision-making authority with the council. Due to the significance of the bona fide invitation from an FBS conference requirement and the lack of compelling mitigation explaining why that requirement, one that several other FCS institutions have met in recent years, has not been met, the committee does not support relief.”
The Hornets have been open about their intentions to move up, and they have received a great deal of financial backing as part of their plans.
Northern Illinois-Mountain West Move Official
Northern Illinois leaders voted to accept an invitation from the Mountain West, and the move was made official last month. That means NIU will leave the MAC.
The ultimate question, as has been the case with basically all conference realignment, has been if moving to a new conference would lead to more money. Going to the Mountain West, the Huskies are likely aiming to make more than they would be by simply staying in the MAC.
Travel has to be considered as well. Currently, the MAC is one of the most logical conferences in the FBS in terms of geography. Within the past couple years, we’ve seen Washington and Oregon go to the Big Ten as well as Stanford and Cal go to the ACC.
While moving to the Mountain West might put NIU in a more competitive league that could arguably bring the program more notoriety, it would also put the football team in the same conference as teams like Hawaii, San Jose State, and UTEP.
It makes sense for the Mountain West, though. The league would span four time zones and it would be picking up a competitive football program. The Huskies have made 13 bowl games since 2008 and has won five MAC titles since 2011.
The Mountain West was also thinking about adding Toledo, but the Rockets’ interest has waned.
Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State, Utah State & San Diego State Join The Pac-12
Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State, and San Diego State have announced they are officially going to the Pac-12, beginning during the 2026 season. Gonzaga will also be going to the Pac-12 as a non-football member.
Those moves created a ripple effect for the rest of the FBS. The Pac-12 needs at least one more team to be technically considered a conference, so others will likely become members of the new-look league. The Mountain West lost some of its top teams and began searching for candidates to boost its numbers back up.
Pac-12 officials reportedly believe the league can reach a media deal worth more than the Mountain West’s currently, which is a key reason for these moves.
The Pac-12 is no longer an autonomous league, meaning it had more influence in regards to NCAA decisions and received more money from the College Football Playoff. It’s uncertain if the Pac-12 could regain that status. It’s also unclear if the CFP would go back to six automatic qualifying spots for conference championship winners, as that number decreased to five following the Pac-12 dropping to two teams.
Memphis, USF, UTSA & Tulane To Stay In The AAC
The Pac-12 was reportedly hoping to add some of the top programs in the AAC as well, but now that’s not happening.
Memphis, Tulane, South Florida, and UTSA publicly announced a recommitment to the AAC. That seriously hampers the Pac-12’s expansion efforts.
All four of those schools are located in good markets, and all four of them were in bowl games in 2023. They were logical targets for the Pac-12 aside from travel costs.
Now the question is what other teams might the Pac-12 be considering.
UNLV, Air Force To Remain In The Mountain West
UNLV, Air Force, and the Mountain West’s remaining full-time members have reportedly recommitted to staying in the Mountain West despite interest from the Pac-12 and AAC.
Air Force was reportedly being considered as an addition for the AAC before Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and San Diego State announced they were going anywhere.
The move would’ve made sense for the Falcons. They could have joined a league with Army and Navy and could have avoided the uncertainty that the Mountain West is looking at. Air Force also doesn’t play too far from Denver, which provides some benefits for any potential conference as well.
Instead, the Falcons and programs like UNLV and San Jose State seem to be a part of the Mountain West’s long-term future.
Pac-12/Mountain West Lawsuit
The Pac-12 is filing a lawsuit against the Mountain West over its poaching penalties. That number will be more than $50 million depending on how many schools end up going from the Mountain West to the Pac-12.
Those fees are on top of the $17 million per school that the soon-to-be Pac-12 members will have to pay for leaving the Mountain West, though the Pac-12 will cover some or all of that.
The poaching penalties were part of the scheduling alliance that the Pac-12 and Mountain West made for this past season.
The Pac-12’s argument is it’s an antitrust issue. The conference allegedly is claiming it had no choice but to agree to that deal because most of the conference’s teams had left and the league had only a few months to come up with a schedule for the 2024 season.
Which Teams Left The Pac-12?
USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington decided to go to the Big Ten, and Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah chose to head to the Big 12.
Then Cal and Stanford went to the ACC, leaving just two teams in the Pac-12.
Who Is In The Pac-2?
Washington State and Oregon State are the only programs remaining in the Pac-12. Some began calling them the Pac-2.
When Cal, Stanford, WSU, and OSU were the only teams left in the Pac-12, people referred to them as the Pac-4. However, Stanford and Cal are now in the ACC.
While OSU and WSU were facing an unclear future, both teams saw some success in 2023 and were both ranked in the AP Top 25 at one point.
Clemson & FSU’s ACC Lawsuits
Clemson, Florida State, and the ACC are reportedly going to vote on Tuesday to settle multiple lawsuits. Those parties have agreed to a model where the two schools will end up earning a bigger share of the revenue from the conference’s television deal.
Clemson and FSU both sued the ACC in the past year over matters related to the ACC’s grant of rights.
Neither school has given official notice that it intends to leave. However, Florida State has expressed frustration with the ACC’s media deal for a long time, saying FSU isn’t making enough to keep up with SEC and Big Ten programs also seeking to win national championships.
For example, the nine FBS leagues recently signed off on a six-year College Football Playoff arrangement through 2031 that would give the Big Ten and SEC nearly twice as much money as the ACC and Big 12.
Florida State argued the ACC mismanaged its TV agreement with ESPN, The Athletic reported. FSU was also seeking for a court in Florida to rule whether the ACC’s grant of rights is legitimate.
Clemson has questioned the legitimacy of the ACC’s grant of rights when it comes to a school leaving the conference.
The ACC maintained that both schools knew and accepted the terms when they agreed to the grant of rights and the ACC’s media deal with ESPN. The ACC has sued both FSU and Clemson and has reportedly argued the two schools had a chance to disagree with those media deals but didn’t within an appropriate amount of time.
Pac-12 2024 Conference Realignment News
The Mountain West announced the league is bringing in UTEP, which is currently a member of Conference USA and was believed by some to be a potential target for the Pac-12.
UTEP is joining a conference that’s stronger in terms of on-the-field performance.
And that’s not including the five teams which will be members of the Pac-12 in two years. For example, Air Force and UNLV reached the AP Top 25 the past two seasons.
There’s also familiarity with the Miners and the other current Mountain West teams, as UTEP played against all of those programs while in the Western Athletic Conference.
UTEP’s decision appears to be financially sound as well. The money made from the Mountain West’s TV deal could be more than four times as much as UTEP is making with Conference USA’s. That’s going off of the current numbers of those deals, and that could of course end up changing with so many teams leaving the Mountain West, which has a TV deal that will reportedly expire after next season.
UTEP’s move could also end up making sense from a travel standpoint as well. While Texas State announced its commitment to the Sun Belt, reports have indicated Tarleton State might also end up going to the MW, so that could be another team in the state of Texas. Currently only one other CUSA team is in the Lone Star State (Sam Houston).
UTEP will become a member of the Mountain West on July 1, 2026. The Miners’ football team will begin Mountain West play during the 2026 season.
Hawaii announced it will become a full-time Mountain West member in 2026, giving the league the minimum eight members it needed.
CFP’s Move To 5+7 Format Impacting G5 Teams
The College Football Playoff changed its format for 2024.
The CFP Board of Managers unanimously decided to alter the setup for the playoff. Now, the five highest-ranked conference title winners will automatically qualify, and the next seven highest-ranked teams will make up the rest of the field.
Previously, the six highest-ranked conference champions would make it. Then the next-highest ranked six teams would consist of the rest of the field.
This means at least one Group of Five team will still make the CFP. The previous rules would’ve guaranteed spots for at least two G5 programs, but it was unlikely that those rules were going to stand after most of the Pac-12’s members departed for other leagues.
G5 representatives on the CFP Board of Managers included Western Kentucky President Tim Caboni (Conference USA), Tulane President Michael Fitts (AAC), Troy President Jack Hawkins (Sun Belt), Buffalo President Satish Tripathi (MAC), and UNLV President Keith Whitfield (Mountain West).
College Football Playoff Rules
The 2024 season was the CFP’s first with 12 teams making the playoffs.
Despite the 5+7 change, no specific conference will have an automatic qualifier, and there will be no maximum for a number of teams from any one conference.
With this new format, the five highest-ranked conference champions will automatically receive a CFP berth and the four highest-ranked conference title winners will have a bye during the first round. The next eight teams will be seeded Nos. 5-12, and the higher-seeded programs will host.
Then the quarterfinals and semifinals will be made up of the New Year’s Six bowls, and the national championship will keep being played at a neutral site.
Can A Pac-12 Team Make The College Football Playoff?
Washington State and Oregon State, the two remaining Pac-12 teams in 2024, still can earn a spot in the CFP. However, that path will be difficult without a chance to automatically qualify with a conference championship.
Most of the Pac-12’s members played in other Power Four conferences in 2024. OSU and WSU agreed to a scheduling alliance with the Mountain West for 2024.
Mountain West Conference Media Deal
The Mountain West agreed to a $270 million media rights deal in 2020 with CBS and FOX, according to The Athletic. It would end after the 2025-26 season. Teams are scheduled to be paid $4 million per year.
New College Football Playoff Format
Earning a bye in the College Football Playoff became much more difficult for Group of Five teams recently.
CFP executives unanimously voted to move to straight seeding for the 2025 College Football Playoff. That means the highest-ranked four teams will receive byes, not necessarily the highest-ranked conference champions as was the case before.
The five highest-ranked conference champions and the next-highest ranked seven teams will still make the College Football Playoff field. However, where they end up in the bracket could end up looking different.
Proponents of this rule change argue the highest-ranked teams should be rewarded. However, some argue for more incentive for teams to win their respective conferences. For example, Arizona State was on the bubble at No. 12 in the CFP rankings going into the Big 12 Championship last season. If the Sun Devils had lost that extra game, they might’ve fallen out of the CFP picture. SMU lost the ACC title game but squeezed into the CFP field with the last at-large bid.
This exact format has yet to be approved for the 2026 season, meaning the CFP could go back to the old format – which seems unlikely – or officials go in a new direction altogether.
It may be difficult for G5 teams to climb up to the fourth-highest spot. Generally teams from the Group of Five don’t start the season ranked very highly, and if any of those teams lose even once during conference play, they drop further in those rankings than if a P4 team were to lose in October. And it’s much harder for G5 teams to climb back up even if they do only have a loss or two during the regular season.
It’s not impossible for a great G5 team to rise up the rankings, especially with a tough non-conference slate, but the margin for error is very small.
