Belmont rides an eight-game win streak into tonight’s trip to UIC. Its last loss came on Jan. 4 by one point to Southern Illinois.
The Bruins (21-3 overall, 11-2 Missouri Valley Conference) sit in first place in the Valley and have a two-game lead over Bradley and Murray State. They defeated Murray State last Saturday before Drake on Tuesday. Belmont scored 103 points in both games.
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UIC (13-11, 8-5) had its eight-game win streak snapped Tuesday in a seven-point loss to Murray State. Standout sophomore guard Elijah Crawford was ejected just a few minutes into the contest after being called for a Flagrant 2. He’s been key in the Flames’ resurgence that saw their conference record go from 0-4 to 8-4.
Crawford missed 12 games in the first half of the season, including the first matchup against Belmont. The Bruins won that game by three.
Belmont at UIC Odds
As of this writing, Belmont is a 3.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against UIC. The Over/Under is 150.5 points.
The Moneyline for Belmont is -166 and +140 for UIC.
Belmont at UIC on TV
The matchup between Belmont and UIC will be televised on ESPNU.
Tonight’s game tips off at 9 p.m. ET.
Belmont at UIC Prediction
I predict Belmont covers the 3.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes over 150.5 points.
UIC’s defense has been steady this season, and especially in conference games. They do a solid job of protecting the paint and playing help defense, and are only allowing 67.5 points per game.
However, there are few offenses in the country that are as efficient and effective as Belmont’s. Per KenPom, its effective field-goal percentage of 61.1% is the best in Division I, and its adjusted offensive efficiency of 120.6 leads the conference.
The Bruins get so many quality looks because the ball never sticks on offense, and they constantly force defenders out of position. In conference games, Belmont is averaging 82.8 PPG and shooting 52.1% from the field — both league highs. Their 41.8% from deep is also by far the best in the conference.
Six-foot-5 graduate student Tyler Lundblade leads the Bruins with 15.1 PPG, while Sam Orme adds 12.6 PPG. Forward Drew Scharnowski averages 11.7 points and 6.5 rebounds per game.
One area Belmont struggles with occasionally is turnovers. It turns it over on 17.4% of possessions, which is the fourth-highest in the MVC. UIC forces a turnover on over 20% of its opponents’ possessions, and the Flames will likely need to force a decent amount of turnovers to get a win.
UIC also attacks the offensive glass and generates a lot of its offense via second- and third-chance opportunities. It grabs an offensive rebound on 36.9% of misses, and the Bruins are the worst in the conference at allowing o-boards. This is another area that could be deflating and keep Belmont from finding a steady rhythm offensively.
Winning the turnover battle, slowing the game down, and controlling the glass will be key for the Flames, who I don’t expect will outscore Belmont in a track meet. UIC is averaging 71.5 PPG and shooting 43.8% from the field in conference play. It also has the second-least 3-point makes in the conference (77).
Ahmad Henderson II paces the Flames with 12.8 PPG, while Andy Johnson scores 12 PPG. Crawford averages 11.8 PPG and 3.9 assists per game.
This UIC squad is gritty, and I expect its defense to make Belmont uncomfortable at times. But I think the Bruins will knock down enough shots down the stretch to pull away with a win.
