Last year’s CAA basketball tournament saw Delaware nearly make a Cinderella run to the NCAA Tournament. The 12th-seeded Blue Hens won four games in four days before falling to UNC Wilmington by four points in the title game. Three of their wins came by double-digits over the No. 4, No. 5, and No. 1 seeds.
This year’s bracket feels a little top-heavy with only three teams having odds of 5/1 or shorter to claim the tournament crown. That doesn’t mean a team can’t get hot like the Blue Hens did last year, though.
There wasn’t a ton of movement atop the league standings for most of the year. UNCW and Charleston were consistent throughout the season, while the remainder of the league had its ups and downs.
That includes Hofstra, who was once 4-5 in CAA play, but is now the favorite to represent the conference in the NCAA Tournament.
CAA Basketball Tournament Odds
Hofstra +195
UNC Wilmington +260
Charleston +500
William & Mary +900
Monmouth +950
Towson +1500
Drexel +2000
Campbell +2500
Stony Brook +3500
Elon +8000
Hampton +10000
North Carolina A&T +13000
Northeastern +30000
Odds as of March 4
CAA Basketball Tournament Predictions
There’s a reason that Hofstra is the favorite here. The Pride have the likely CAA Player of the Year in Cruz Davis and are playing great right now, winning nine of their last 10 games. Hofstra is fluid on both sides of the ball and owns the best scoring defense and best defensive field-goal percentage in the league.
It could be a little concerning that of the Pride’s six league losses, five of them came by five points or less. They weren’t great in close games this season. However, I think that’s in the past, and Davis will make big plays down the stretch throughout the tourney.
Top-seeded UNCW has been about as stable as it gets this year, especially defensively. Two of its three conference losses came to William & Mary and the other to Charleston. Those were also among their worst defensive performances of the year.
The Seahawks’ ability to guard the 3-point line and control the glass makes them tough to beat. Even if their shots aren’t falling, defending and rebounding will almost always keep a team in a game. Seven-foot junior Patrick Wessler is a force on the inside and averages 13.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game.
Charleston’s defense has been stout during the back half of conference play and has the Cougars on a five-game win streak with a victory over UNCW to close out the season. The Cougars also have head coach Chris Mack leading them, who has plenty of postseason experience and wins at high-major programs. You know what to expect from Charleston more so than other teams in the league.
It can be hard to gauge William & Mary, who is the fourth-favorite to win the league, but enters as the No. 6 seed. The Tribe have the best offense in the CAA and are averaging 84.2 points per game and shooting 48.6% from the field, both league highs. They want to outscore opponents, but their defense will struggle at times, meaning if the shots aren’t falling, it could be bad news.
William & Mary may be the most dangerous team in the field because of its ability to score a lot and score fast, but it’s hard to trust its defense.
Monmouth clawed its way to a fourth-seed and a bye, but the Hawks have struggled against the other top teams in the league. They don’t necessarily excel at anything, but are good across the board. Being steady and not sporadic in March can be beneficial.
As eighth- and ninth-seeds, Stony Brook and Campbell can be dangerous if they see some shots go through the net and get hot. Stony Brook’s Erik Pratt is an elite scorer and is third in the league with 19.3 PPG. Either team could give UNCW fits. With such long odds, I think it could be worth taking a flyer on either squad.
I also think Stony Brook and Campbell are on the easier side of the bracket, which means UNCW is as well. And as long as the Seahawks continue to play their consistent brand of basketball, they should earn a trip to the title game, where I think their defense and rebounding can propel them to a second consecutive CAA title.
