SoCon Basketball Tournament: Preview, Odds, And Predictions

Few conferences have as much parity as the Southern Conference. The past six SoCon basketball tournaments have featured a different winner, and there have been six different teams earn at least a share of the regular-season title during that stretch.

Of the past 10 tournaments, nine have been won by the No. 1 seed. Wofford put an end to that streak last season when it defeated Furman as a sixth-seed.

ETSU sat atop the league standings for much of this season to earn the top seed, despite losing its final two games of the regular season. 

The second-round contests feature some interesting matchups, which should help make this an entertaining tournament. 

SoCon Basketball Tournament Odds

SoCon Basketball Tournament Predictions

The path won’t be easy for ETSU if it wants to maintain the success of the No. 1 seeds in SoCon tournaments. After a date with either The Citadel or Chattanooga, the Buccaneers would have to meet either WCU or Mercer in the semifinals. WCU beat the Bucs twice this year, and Mercer beat them in the final game of the regular season. 

Led by two-time SoCon Defensive Player of the Year Cam Morris III, ETSU’s defense should give it an edge throughout the tourney, though, as it only allows 68.9 points per game. The Bucs also have scoring depth, meaning it won’t be detrimental if one player has a bad game offensively. 

Furman is similar to ETSU in that the Paladins lean on their defense. Per KenPom, they have the best effective defensive field-goal percentage in the league (48.2%). Six-foot-5 freshman guard Alex Wilkins leads the Paladins with 17.3 PPG, and I expect him to show up against Samford in the second round, who Furman defeated twice already this season.

Samford has been the hottest team in the conference and has only lost one game since Feb. 1, winning nine of its last 10. The Bulldogs have the league’s Player of the Year in Jadin Booth, who leads the league with 21.2 PPG and leads the country in 3-pointers made (119), where he is shooting 43%. He scored 40 against UNCG in the regular-season finale.

I think the Bulldogs are dangerous right now. They share the ball well, don’t turn it over, and are good defensively. Dylan Faulkner was also a First Team SoCon selection, and he and Booth will be hard to contain.

Mercer is another dangerous team that lights up the scoreboard and has beaten each of the top teams in the conference. The Bears average a league-best 83 PPG and will be tough to stop if they get going offensively. 

Bears big man Armani Mighty is one of the best two-way players in the conference and averages 13.7 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. He split DPOY honors with Morris. SoCon First Teamer Baraka Okojie averages 19.5 PPG for Mercer and can take a game over. Brady Shoulders has been sidelined for Mercer the past two games, and is a key role player whose absence could have a big impact.

Second-seeded Wofford is another team that can score at a high clip, but has been struggling recently and has lost four of its last six games, including a loss to The Citadel to end the regular season. The Terriers have some big-time offensive weapons in Kahmare Holmes and Nils Machowski, but the defense is suspect at times, and it’s hard to know if they’ll show up on that end of the court. 

Currently on a six-game win streak with victories over Mercer and Furman, nobody probably wants to meet a WCU team that has a solid, balanced core of guys that play like they don’t have anything to lose. Those teams can be the most dangerous in March. I think whoever wins between WCU and Mercer will have a good chance of knocking off ETSU in the semifinals. 

However, with the way that Samford is playing right now and a pair of elite players in Booth and Faulkner, I think the Bulldogs make a run to a tournament title. I don’t think Furman will beat them three times in one season, and I think the Bulldogs can knock off whoever they meet in the semifinals and title game.