No Cruz Davis, no problem for Hofstra.
The Coastal Athletic Association’s Player of the Year fouled out in Monday’s semifinal of the CAA tournament with just over one minute to play in regulation.
Tied at 55, the game went into overtime where Hofstra freshman and CAA Rookie of the Year Preston Edmead put the Pride on his back, scoring their final six points, including the go-ahead 3-pointer with .3 seconds remaining to knock off Towson, 68-65.
Edmead finished with 22 points and three assists, two of which came in OT.
Monmouth’s semifinal victory was a little less dramatic as the third-seeded Hawks pulled away from Campbell in the second half for a 74-64 win. They defeated Drexel in the quarterfinals by eight.
Fourth-seeded Hofstra swept the season series against Monmouth, but the most recent meeting came Jan. 31.
This is the first time Monmouth will appear in the CAA championship game, while Hofstra is seeking its second-ever title, and first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2001. Its other CAA title came in 2020, the year the NCAA Tourney was canceled.
Hofstra vs. Monmouth Odds
As of this writing, Hofstra is a 4.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Monmouth, while the Over/Under is at 133.5 points.
The Moneyline for Hofstra is -205 and +170 for Monmouth.
Hofstra vs. Monmouth on TV
The matchup between Hofstra and Monmouth will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
Hofstra vs. Monmouth Prediction
I predict Monmouth covers the 4.5-point spread, but Hofstra wins. I also predict this game goes over 133.5 points.
There are plenty of guys in this game who can light it up. Davis, a junior, leads the league with 20.5 points per game and is shooting 44.8% from the field and 40.4% from the outside. Edmead is averaging 15.5 PPG and shooting 40% from the field and 38.4% from 3. Both guys dish out over four assists per game.
Davis and Edmead have no issues getting to their spots or creating their own shots. The Pride do like to put them in high ball-screens, though, which creates a lot of pick-and-roll opportunities and tends to leave their big men open rolling to the hoop because the defense is so focused on Cruz and Edmead.
However, Monmouth has been much better at guarding the paint than the 3-point line this year. Per KenPom, the Hawks allow opponents to shoot 49.6% from inside the arc, which is 88th-best in the country. Their 34.1% allowed from 3 ranks 179th. Hofstra is shooting 48.6% from two-point range and 37.1% from 3.
Monmouth guard Jason Rivera-Torres is an all-conference defender, but he alone won’t be able to slow down Cruz and Edmead, who I think have big games. I also think Hofstra will get some quality looks inside off of pick-and-roll opportunities, despite the Hawks’ ability to defend the interior.
The Hawks have their own electric duo in Rivera-Torres and Kavion McClain. Rivera-Torres has a dangerous mid-range game, but can also get to the rim and knock down triples. He’s averaging 15.8 points and 8.1 rebounds per game.
McClain has given the Hawks a jolt since becoming eligible after missing the first 23 games of the season, during which he was being investigated by the NCAA for rules infractions. He is averaging 16.9 points and 5.4 APG, and has helped Monmouth to an 8-2 record since his return. The Hawks are averaging 75.6 PPG during that stretch.
Hofstra’s defense has been solid all season, allowing a league-best 66 PPG and an effective field-goal percentage of 45.8%, which ranks 11th in the country.
However, Monmouth’s offense has turned the corner since the return of McClain, and I think it will have no issues scoring.
There should be plenty of playmaking and big shots from both teams, but I think Davis and Edmead knock down more shots down the stretch to propel the Pride to a win and a trip to the NCAA Tournament.
