East Tennessee State enters the final stretch of the regular season atop the Southern Conference standings and has beaten every team in the league except Western Carolina.
The Buccaneers’ (18-7 overall, 10-2 SoCon) two league losses have come to WCU by a combined six points. Those are also the only two losses ETSU has suffered since Dec. 20. It is on a three-game win streak and coming off a 17-point victory over VMI.
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So far, former VMI coach Dan Earl is having his worst season in his four years at Chattanooga. The Mocs (10-15, 4-8) have lost five of their last six, but did upset Mercer last week.
All but one of Chattanooga’s league losses have come by 11 points or less, including a 67-66 home loss to ETSU on Jan. 21, where the Bucs’ Blake Barkley made two free throws with four seconds remaining, lifting them to a win.
Chattanooga at ETSU Odds
As of this writing, ETSU is a 10.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Chattanooga, while the Over/Under is 144.5 points.
The Moneyline for ETSU is -700 and +500 for Chattanooga.
Chattanooga at ETSU on TV
The matchup between Chattanooga and ETSU will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
Chattanooga at ETSU Prediction
I predict Chattanooga covers the 10.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes under 144.5 points.
I think the Mocs’ defense shows up to play, and they’re able to slow the game down with their zone defense, where they do a good job at taking away both the inside and guarding the perimeter.
Per KenPom, Chattanooga’s defensive effective field-goal percentage of 50.1% in league games is the second best in the SoCon, and their 32.1% allowed on 3-point attempts is the best.
ETSU had no problems against VMI’s zone last week, but the Chattanooga defense is much more effective. The Bucs should be able to use their size advantage to flash in gaps and get clean looks. I think one of the reasons the Mocs play a zone is because they’re often undersized. However, they make their opponents work to get quality looks and are allowing 73.6 points per game, which is the third-best in the SoCon.
Chattanooga will especially have a challenge against ETSU’s frontcourt in Cam Morris III and Barkley. Morris leads the Bucs with 14.7 PPG while Barkley averages 14.3. Both guys average five rebounds per game.
The Mocs struggle to get defensive rebounds out of their zone at times, so it’ll be crucial to not allow many second-chance opportunities.
It’ll also be a challenge on offense for the Mocs against arguably the best defense in the conference. ETSU allows a league-best 67.8 PPG, and its adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.3 also ranks first.
The Mocs like to play out of the high post, and I expect ETSU to force them out of position and make it difficult for them to initiate their offense. Chattanooga moves the ball well, though, and gets a lot of production from the 3-point line, so I think it’ll be able to knock down enough shots to keep this one from getting away.
Six-foot junior guard Jordan Frison paces the Mocs with 14.9 points and 3.8 assists per game, while five other Mocs average between seven and 10 PPG. They are averaging 75.2 PPG as a group.
ETSU should get the win here, but as I mentioned above, the Mocs have been in nearly every conference game, and I’m sure they haven’t forgotten the way in which they lost to the Bucs three weeks ago.
I expect another gritty showing from Chattanooga and for it to be tough to put away.
