Sam Houston has been one of the hottest teams in the country, and after a 2-4 start to Conference USA play, has won 10 out of its last 11 games.
The Bearkats (19-8, 11-5) have also been winning with a depleted roster. Seven of SHSU’s players are out for the season, and it has only had eight active players for its last two outings. Still, the Bearkats have won three in a row and are coming off a gritty 82-78 win over Jacksonville State.
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Bearkats coach Chris Mudge should be in the conversation to win his second CUSA Coach of the Year award in the past three seasons.
FIU (13-14, 6-10) has been on the wrong side of a handful of close losses this year, but has come out on top in a few of those outings as well. Eleven of the Panthers’ league games have been decided by single digits, and eight of them by four points or less. They defeated Missouri State by three their last time out.
These squads met on Jan. 17 with SHSU winning, 76-63.
FIU at Sam Houston Odds
As of this writing, Sam Houston is a 6.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against FIU, while the Over/Under is at 160.5 points.
The Moneyline for SHSU is -275 and +220 for FIU.
FIU at Sam Houston on TV
The matchup between FIU and Sam Houston will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 9 p.m. ET.
FIU at Sam Houston Prediction
I predict FIU covers the 6.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes over 160.5 points.
These are two of the top three scoring offenses and two of the top up-tempo teams in the league. Sam Houston ranks second with 82.7 points per game and, per KenPom, has an adjusted tempo of 70.2 (possessions per 40 minutes).
The Bearkats like to initiate the offense by getting post touches to 6-foot-10 senior Veljko Ilic. Even if his looks aren’t there, it often opens up the floor and creates space for SHSU’s backcourt to make plays.
Guards Po’Boigh King and Kashie Natt are both dangerous scorers and keep defenses on their heels. King can score at all three levels and is averaging 14.1 points per game. The 6-foot-3 Natt is electric on both ends of the floor and is averaging 10.8 PPG and a team-high 7.4 rebounds per game. He also averages two steals per game. Ilic adds 10.8 PPG and 6.6 RPG.
SHSU’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 112.6 is second-best in the league, and it is shooting 46.7% from the field and 36.4% from 3.
FIU thrives on creating turnovers and does so at a 19.1% rate, which is the highest in the league. The Panthers double-team often, overplay, and get in passing lanes. Their gambling on the defensive end can lead to open looks for opponents, though, and they’re allowing 77 PPG and a defensive effective field-goal percentage of 52.8%.
When they are able to turnover opponents, it leads to transition buckets. The Panthers own the highest adjusted tempo in the conference (71.9) and are averaging 81.4 PPG. They aren’t a great 3-point shooting team and don’t shoot a ton from the outside. Most of their production comes around the rim and at the free-throw line.
I think the Panthers will have some success running the floor against an SHSU team that doesn’t have a ton of depth and turns the ball over 12 times a game. The Bearkats also allow 74 PPG.
Senior wing Corey Stephenson paces FIU and is second in the league with 17.9 PPG and averages 6.4 RPG. Julian Mackey scores 12.2 PPG, while Zawdie Jackson averages 11.7 points and 3.1 assists per game.
While I expect the Panthers to keep this one close, like they have in most conference contests, SHSU has been more consistent and has proven it can still win even with a thin rotation. I think the Bearkats knock down more shots down the stretch to earn the win.
