Western Kentucky ended a four-game losing skid with a 65-60 win over Middle Tennessee on Saturday.
The Hilltoppers (12-10 overall, 5-6 Conference USA) were without their two top scorers in two of those losses, but got freshman guard Armelo Boone back against MTSU. Leading scorer Teagan Moore is still sidelined, however, and, as of this writing, is questionable to play against Jacksonville State.
The Gamecocks (11-10, 6-4) had their three-game win streak snapped at Missouri State on Saturday. They struggled from the field and struggled with turnovers, which is something that’s plagued them all season.
These squads met in late December, with Jax State picking up an 11-point victory.
Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky Odds
As of this writing, Western Kentucky is a 4.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Jacksonville State, while the Over/Under is 139.5 points.
The Moneyline for WKU is -180 and +150 for Jax State.
Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky on TV
The matchup between Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 9 p.m. ET.
Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky Prediction
I predict Jacksonville State covers the 4.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes under 139.5 points.
Even with Moore on the court, the Hilltoppers aren’t the most efficient offensive group. Per KenPom, their effective field-goal percentage of 43.5% in league games is the worst in CUSA, and they are averaging a modest 70.9 points per game. They haven’t eclipsed 70 points in six outings.
I don’t see the Hilltoppers having too much success against a Jax State defense that has been sturdy for much of the season and is allowing 70.4 PPG in league games. WKU also struggles from the outside, only knocking down 31.9% of 3-pointers, while the Gamecocks have the best 3-point defense (32.6%) in the league.
Moore’s 17.2 PPG pace WKU, while Boone and forward Grant Newell both average 11 PPG.
Jax State’s offense goes through 6-foot-6 senior wing Mostapha El Moutaouakkil, who leads the league with 18.2 points per game among active players. His usage in CUSA play is the highest in the league, and he also grabs 7.5 rebounds per game.
Most of El Moutaouakkil’s work comes in the paint and at the free-throw line. The Moroccan product’s 174 free-throw attempts are the most in the league and the 11th most in the country.
WKU can struggle to guard without fouling and has surrendered the second-most free-throw attempts in the country. Whether or not Jax State is able to get to the stripe and if it can take care of the ball will be the biggest factors in this game.
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Against conference foes, the Gamecocks turn it over on 19.4% of possessions, which is by far the highest in CUSA. WKU forces a turnover on 17.5% of possessions. It’s likely the Hilltoppers will have to work hard to score, so it’ll be crucial for Jax State to not give up extra opportunities or easy looks in transition off live-ball turnovers.
Aside from the turnovers, the Gamecocks are decent offensively and have an effective field-goal percentage of 52.5%. They average 71.3 PPG in league games.
AC Bryant is second on the roster with 13.1 PPG, and freshman Jacoby Hill has had strong showings throughout the year and is averaging nine PPG.
WKU might pick up the home victory here, but I think the Gamecocks will do enough defensively to make it tough on the Hilltoppers and keep this one close.
