Liberty and its 15-game win streak have been playing with fire in its last few outings.
The Flames (21-3 overall, 13-0 Conference USA) have won their last two games by a combined five points and let Delaware hang around in a six-point victory last week. On Wednesday against New Mexico State, senior forward Zach Cleveland banked in a 16-foot jumper off a baseline out-of-bounds pass to lift the Flames to a 77-75 win.
UTEP (10-15, 6-8) is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now and has defeated NMSU and Jacksonville State in its last two games. It’s the only win streak the Miners have had since the first two games of the season, when they beat a pair of non-Division I opponents.
In last month’s meeting between these two squads, the Miners only trailed by six midway through the second half before the Flames pulled away for an 80-69 victory.
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Liberty at UTEP Odds
As of this writing, Liberty is a 7.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against UTEP while the Over/Under is 137.5 points.
The Moneyline for LU is -355 and +280 for UTEP.
Liberty at UTEP on TV
The matchup between Liberty and UTEP will be televised on ESPN2.
Today’s game tips off at 2 p.m. ET.
Liberty at UTEP Prediction
I predict UTEP covers the 7.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes over 137.5 points.
The Miners will have their hands full with Cleveland. He’s one of the best playmakers in the conference and is the top candidate to be named the CUSA Player of the Year. The point-forward leads the league with 7.2 assists per game and averages 11.2 points and 8.1 rebounds per game.
He draws so much attention, but has great vision and knows how to get the ball to Liberty’s sharpshooters. Outside of Cleveland, the rest of the Flames’ starting five shoot a combined average of 41.8% from the 3-point line.
Brett Decker’s 49.7% from 3 is the second-best in the nation, and he also leads the Flames with 17 PPG. Kaden Metheny adds 13.2 PPG, while Colin Porter and JJ Harper both score 11 PPG.
Per KenPom, the Flames’ adjusted offensive efficiency of 117.9 leads the league, and their effective field-goal percentage of 60% is the third-best in the country.
UTEP’s defense isn’t terrific, but its identity is to create pressure and make opponents as uncomfortable as possible. They do a good job of that and force the second-most turnovers in the conference.
Although Liberty turns it over on only 12.8% of its possessions, which is the lowest in the league, I still think the Miners can make the Flames’ shooters uncomfortable and run them off the 3-point line.
The Miners’ defensive numbers aren’t great, as they have an adjusted defensive efficiency of 109.2 and allow an effective field-goal percentage of 51%. Both rank in the bottom four in the league, but the effort and grittiness are always there on that end of the court.
Offensively, the Miners aren’t very efficient and average 68.2 PPG and shoot 41% from the field, which ranks in the bottom three in CUSA. They don’t play through the post too often, but instead settle for shots from the outside, where they are shooting a modest 35.1%.
I think UTEP can knock down enough shots against a Liberty team that allows an effective field-goal percentage of 51.7% and 37% from 3, which are both second-worst in the conference.
Six-foot-8 junior forward Elijah Jones paces the Miners with 14.3 PPG, and Jamal West Jr. adds 13.8 points and 6.7 RPG.
There’s no denying Liberty is the best team in the conference, but I think UTEP has the potential to muck this game up and keep it close. Perhaps the Miners can even pull off an upset.
