Preseason American Conference selection Memphis hasn’t lived up to its billing, but the Tigers can still find a way to get back into the race. The attempted road back begins on Thursday when Memphis visits South Florida in a key American Conference clash.
Memphis (12-13, 7-5) stands two games behind in the loss column to first-place USF in the American Conference race. USF (18-8, 10-3) is riding a four-game win streak.
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One way Memphis can get back in the race is by beating USF twice in the next two weeks. The teams also meet on March 5 in Memphis.
This has been an inconsistent season for Memphis, which is coming off Saturday’s 99-75 non-conference loss at Utah State. Senior guard Sincere Parker led Memphis with 21 points and a career-high 10 rebounds.
USF is coming off Sunday’s 83-81 overtime win at Florida Atlantic. Junior guard Wes Enis scored 27 points, shooting 10-for-17 from the field, including 5-of-9 from three-point range.
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Memphis at USF Odds
As of this writing, USF is an 8.5-point college basketball betting favorite on BetMGM.
The Over/Under is 158.5.
Memphis at USF On TV
Tipoff for Memphis at USF is expected to start shortly after 7 p.m. ET.
The game will be televised on ESPN2.
Memphis at USF Prediction
Memphis might be the American’s most unpredictable team, but with their backs to the wall, I like the Tigers getting the points.
USF likes to play an up-tempo game. The Bulls are leading the American in scoring, averaging 88.8 points per game. That ranks No. 10 nationally heading into Wednesday’s games. USF’s adjusted tempo is 71.6, according to KenPom. Adjusted tempo is possessions per 40 minutes. That places the Bulls 17th nationally.
Memphis likes to play up-tempo, but just isn’t as successful as the Bulls. The Tigers average 74.8 points per game. Memphis’ adjusted tempo is a healthy 70.0, which is 52nd nationally.
While USF scores a lot of points, the Bulls are 12th in the American in points allowed, 78.5 per game. Memphis allows 73.5 points per game.
USF and Memphis aren’t great three-point shooting teams. The Bulls shoot .334, and Memphis is at .319. A major difference is in three-point defense. Memphis entered Wednesday leading the American (.297) while USF was 13th and last at .351.
Part of that is because USF plays such an up-tempo transition game that the Bulls don’t always get back on defense and often allow open 3s.
Will Memphis be able to take advantage of that?
The two teams are comparable in free-throw shooting, with USF at .732 and Memphis at .724. Turnovers, as mentioned previously, have really plagued Memphis, and that will be a key in this game. USF has a 2.46 turnover ratio, while Memphis is at -0.04.
When one looks at the urgency of the game, both teams can state their case. USF, despite leading the American at this stage, may have to win the conference tournament to earn an NCAA berth. That is why the Bulls have to put as many wins together. USF is ranked just 60th by KenPom entering Wednesday. That isn’t a profile of an NCAA team. If the Bulls keep winning, obviously that could change, but losing to teams like Memphis will only drop them lower.
Memphis, meanwhile, all but has to win the conference tournament to earn a berth, and the best way to do that is to get the highest seed possible. Memphis is ranked 99th by KenPom, the fourth-highest American Conference team. The Tigers have been wildly inconsistent, and they also haven’t played well on the road with a 2-8 record.
Meanwhile, USF is 10-2 at home.
Izaiyah Nelson, a 6-foot-10 senior, averages 16.0 points and 9.8 rebounds to lead USF in both categories. Enis is the second-leading scorer, right behind at 15.9 PPG.
Senior guard Dug McDaniel averages a team-high 12.8 points for Memphis, while Parker is the other double-figure scorer at 12.0.
