Memphis and Wichita State both sit in the middle of the crowded American Conference standings.
The Tigers (9-9, 4-2) had won four of their first five league games before losing at Tulsa, 83-66, on Wednesday. Memphis has dealt with injuries for most of the season and was hit with another injury when second-leading scorer Sincere Parker suffered an ankle injury against Tulsa. His status will be known when the league’s availability reports are released two hours before the game.
Wichita State (12-8, 4-3) has won three of its last four and defeated East Carolina by 17 on Wednesday. Four of the Shockers’ league games have been decided by single digits.
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Memphis at Wichita State Odds
As of this writing, Wichita State is a 2.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Memphis, while the Over/Under is 145.5 points.
The Moneyline for Wichita State is -175 and +145 for Memphis.
Memphis at Wichita State on TV
The matchup between Memphis and Wichita State will be televised on ESPN2.
Today’s game tips off at 4 p.m. ET.
Memphis at Wichita State Prediction
I predict Wichita State covers the 2.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes under 145.5 points.
Between Memphis’ strong defense yet sporadic offense, I don’t anticipate there will be a ton of points scored in this matchup.
The Tigers play physical defense and are only allowing 68.7 points per game in conference play. They’re also holding league foes to just 40% from the field and 24% from the outside. Wichita State doesn’t shoot a ton of triples, but they can definitely knock them down and are shooting 36% from the outside.
A lot of those opportunities come off offensive rebounds, which is where the Shockers thrive. Per KenPom, their offensive rebounding rate of 40.1% is the fifth-best nationally, and that number is up to 42% in conference games.
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The Shockers have two of the best offensive rebounders in the league in 7-foot-2 Will Berg and Karon Boyd. Six-foot-10 Emmanuel Okorafor also grabs his fair share of offensive rebounds.
Memphis isn’t great in that category and allows an o-board 35.6% of the time, which is the second-worst in the league. It does have a front court that may be able to hang with Wichita State, though, with 7-foot-1 Aaron Bradshaw and 6-11 Thierno Sylla. Sylla doesn’t get a ton of minutes, but I think he might get some more action here to counter Wichita State’s size.
The Tigers also have the perimeter defense that can limit Kenyon Giles, who is third in the league with 18.4 points per game.
Whether or not the Tigers can take care of the ball will be important as well. They lead the league in turnovers, which could also lead to more transition 3-point opportunities for the Shockers. However, Wichita State ranks second-to-last in the conference in forcing turnovers.
The Shockers’ defense is good and is only allowing 70.1 PPG in league play, but it’s not going to overwhelm opponents. This isn’t the Penny Hardaway Memphis squads of the past, though, that has a ton of offensive firepower.
I just don’t think the Tigers can find enough from their offense to get a win, especially if Parker is sidelined. The Tigers do have a ton of guys who contribute on a nightly basis, but the offense has been inconsistent for much of the season.
Senior guard Dug McDaniel is the only player averaging double-figures with 13.9 PPG. He also adds 4.9 assists per game. Parker is averaging 9.3 PPG.
I think there will be a lot of missed shots, and whoever wins the battle on the glass will win this game. Wichita State seems to own that advantage.
