New Mexico State looks to avenge a Jan. 4 loss when it hosts Missouri State today.
Behind 29 made free throws, the Bears (10-8 overall, 4-3 Conference USA) won the first meeting 89-82. It was the third consecutive league win for MSU, but it has since gone 1-4 and is coming off a double-overtime loss to Middle Tennessee.
The Aggies (10-7, 3-4) dropped two close games to MTSU and Liberty before picking up a 97-68 road win over Delaware on Saturday. Outside of a contest against the University of Southwest, an NAIA program, the 97 points were the most the Aggies have scored this season.
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Missouri State at New Mexico State Odds
As of this writing, New Mexico State is a 6.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Missouri State, while the Over/Under is 143.5 points.
The Moneyline for NMSU is -258 and +210 for MSU.
Missouri State at New Mexico State on TV
The matchup between Missouri State and New Mexico State will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 9 p.m. ET.
Missouri State at New Mexico State Prediction
I predict Missouri State covers the spread, but New Mexico State wins. I also predict this game goes over 143.5 points.
Neither of these teams struggle to score, with both averaging 78 points per game in conference play. Interestingly, they also both allow 74 PPG in league games.
Where the Bears found success in the first matchup is where they’ve been successful all season — getting the ball inside and getting to the free-throw line. Their starting front court of Keith Palek III and Michael Osei-Bonsu shot a combined 20 free throws against NMSU.
Palek ranks in the top 10 in the league in scoring (18 PPG), rebounds (7.1/game), and assists (3.8/game). The Division II transfer is the only player in the league to be in the top 10 in all three categories and can pose matchup issues for opposing defenses. However, I think the athletic NMSU forward Julius Mims will do a decent job guarding him.
Despite standing at 6-foot-4, Osei-Bonsu also has no problems finishing around the rim over taller players. It’ll be key for the Aggies to not get baited into any fouls against these two while still playing their physical brand of defense.
In league games, NMSU allows an effective field-goal percentage of 49.5%, per KenPom. That mark ranks second in CUSA.
Led by senior guard Jemel Jones, the Aggies boast an adjusted offensive efficiency of 116.8 and an effective field-goal percentage of 54.9%. Jones is averaging 16 PPG while Mims chips in with 10.3 PPG and 7.8 RPG.
They tend to settle for shots instead of moving the ball around, but they have guys who can make those shots. They’ve been efficient in conference play and don’t turn the ball over often (10 turnovers per game). MSU forces a turnover on 19.5% of possessions, which is the most in the league.
NMSU likes to play at a faster pace, and this could fall in their favor against an MSU team that doesn’t see many minutes from its bench. If the Aggies can get out and run the floor, it could wear down the Bears, especially on a third-consecutive road game.
Missouri State could very well go on the road and win this game, and I think they will keep it close. With the revenge factor and with the Aggies playing at home in front of a usually good crowd, I think they’ll pick up this win.
