The last five seasons in the Missouri Valley Conference have produced five different regular-season champions.
There’s a reason there are four teams with college basketball betting odds of 5/1 or shorter to be crowned this year’s MVC regular-season champ, as of this writing. Of the odds available on BetMGM, no other conference has three teams with odds of 5/1 or shorter.
The parity proves the Valley is one of the most competitive mid-major leagues in college hoops.
And the three favorites to be this year’s regular-season champion haven’t claimed a title since Illinois State did so in 2016-17, when it earned a share with Wichita State (Murray State and Belmont have been in the league since 2022).
That means chances are high there will be six different MVC regular-season champions in six years.
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Missouri Valley Conference Basketball Odds (Regular-Season Champion) via BetMGM
Murray State +135
Belmont +225
Illinois State +450
Northern Iowa +500
Bradley +1100
Southern Illinois +8000
Drake +20000
Illinois Chicago +25000
Indiana State +30000
Valparaiso +30000
Evansville +30000
Odds as of Jan. 12.
Murray State Basketball Outlook
It didn’t take long for first-year head coach Ryan Miller to establish the Racers as one of the top offensive groups in the league. A former assistant at Creighton, Miller’s offense resembles that of the Bluejays’ and features a lot of perimeter shooting. Both Murray State and Creighton lead their respective conferences in 3-point attempts this season.
The style of play has been a recipe for success for the Racers as they’re 15-3 overall and the last unbeaten team in the MVC at 7-0. They’re currently on an 11-game win streak and have quality non-conference wins over George Washington and Akron.
It’s fitting that the Racers play fast and get up a ton of shots, but they also play smart and get quality looks.
On the other side of the floor, Murray State defends the arc well, making it tough for opponents to keep pace. The 91 3-pointers made against the Racers are the lowest total in the league.
UIC transfer Javon Jackson leads the conference with 17.1 points per game and can score at all three levels, and the Racers have three players in Mason Miller, JJ Traynor, and Roman Domon who are all 6-foot-9 and are shooting 40% or better from the outside.
The Racers may have a few games where the shots aren’t falling, but their ability to score could carry them to their first MVC title.
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Belmont Basketball Outlook
I don’t know if there’s a more efficient team in the country than the Bruins.
In fact, per KenPom, their effective field-goal percentage of 60.1% is the best in college basketball. Led by 6-foot-5 graduate student Tyler Lundblade, the Bruins are shooting 40% from outside. Lundblade’s 42% mark leads the conference.
Belmont (15-3, 5-2) didn’t face many challenges in non-conference play and has already dropped two one-point league games. The Bruins have been solid on the road, though, and have already won eight such games.
They share the ball as well as anybody in the country, and their 18 assists per game lead the Valley. When Belmont is on offense, the ball hardly touches the floor or the rim.
Its opponent field-goal percentage of 38% is also the best in the conference. If they’re able to maintain that consistency on both ends of the floor, they could easily finish the regular season at the top of the league.
Illinois State Basketball Outlook
Predicted to win the league in the preseason media poll, the Redbirds have hit a slight hiccup with back-to-back losses to Valparaiso and UIC.
The Redbirds (12-5, 4-2) returned two all-conference juniors in big man Chase Walker and guard Johnny Kinziger this season, along with plenty of other production. These guys can get it done offensively, but Illinois State’s defense has been its calling card this year.
Per KenPom, they’re the No. 1 defense in league play by most metrics. They force tough shots and create a ton of turnovers.
Now with a pair of losses against teams they were expected to beat, there’s a lot less room for error for the Redbirds if they want to win a regular-season title.
Northern Iowa Basketball Outlook
Much like the Redbirds, Northern Iowa’s defense is its strength, and especially its ability to make offenses work to find decent looks.
UNI is allowing just 59.5 points per game and an effective field goal percentage of 45.6%. They’ve only allowed three teams to score 70 or more points.
The Panthers (12-5, 4-2) have already been tested in league play and dropped a pair of games to Belmont and Bradley. Both squads were able to speed the Panthers up and make them play much faster than they would like.
Northern Iowa plays mostly upperclassmen, which I think that experience will be critical down the stretch in league games, and in his 20th season leading the program, coach Ben Jacobson will have his team in the mix come late February.
Missouri Valley Conference Basketball Predictions
Murray State looks like the team to beat and the most steady group in the league right now.
However, with the way Belmont is playing on both ends of the floor, I like the Bruins to win their first MVC title. This might be Casey Alexander’s best defensive team in his seven seasons at Belmont, and it’s hard to ignore what the Bruins can do offensively.
Although they weren’t mentioned above, Bradley is also worth a look at +1100.
