The Mountain West title picture seemed pretty clear-cut most of the season. It was Utah State’s and San Diego State’s conference to win. But it has been the wild west the past few weeks, and the Mountain West basketball tournament is going to be no different.
Regular-season champion Utah State (25-6, 15-5 MWC) enters the fray as the No. 1 seed. The Aggies sat atop the standings for most of the year, but they lost three of their past five games, including a 92-65 setback against UNLV, which is entering the tournament as the No. 8 seed.
San Diego State (20-10, 14-6), the preseason favorite to win the conference title, enters the tournament as the No. 2 seed. It has been in the thick of the title hunt all year, especially after knocking off Utah State in late February, but the Aztecs lost two of their final three regular-season games, including an 86-77 loss to Boise State.
New Mexico (22-9, 13-7) earned the No. 3 seed after beating the Aztecs, 81-76, on Feb. 28, but the Lobos are coming off a 94-90 loss to Utah State in the regular-season finale.
Mountain West newcomer Grand Canyon (20-11, 13-7) rounds out the top four seeds, which come with a first-round bye. The Antelopes joined the league this year after a little more than a decade in the WAC. They won three of their final four regular-season games, and they own wins over both Utah State and San Diego State. The Lopes were swept by New Mexico this season.
All four teams have the talent to win the Mountain West Tournament, a feat that comes with an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Utah State is led by Mountain West Player of the Year Mason Falslev, who ranks No. 8 in the league with 15.9 points per game and leads the Aggies with 5.7 rebounds per game and 60 steals. He’s third on the team with 91 assists. He was also named first-team all-conference and a member of the All-Defensive team on Tuesday.
The Aztecs are led by Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Miles Byrd, who has team-highs in steals (57) and blocked shots (36) and averages 4.5 rebounds a game. Second-team all-conference pick Reese Dixon-Waters is the team’s top scorer with 13.2 points a game.
The Lobos are paced by Mountain West Freshman of the Year Jake Hall, who leads the league with 99 3-pointers and is shooting a conference-best 44 percent from 3-point range. His top competition for the award may have been teammate Tomislav Buljan, a 23-year-old freshman from Croatia, who is averaging 12.2 points and 10.3 rebounds a game.
Grand Canyon is led by UNLV transfer Jaden Henley, who earned first-team all-conference honors after ranking No. 3 in the conference with 17.6 points a game.
Mountain West Basketball Tournament Odds
Utah State is a +225 college basketball betting odds favorite to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament on BetMGM as of this writing.
San Diego State’s odds are at +325, followed by Grand Canyon at +525. Boise State’s recent hot streak has it at +550, just ahead of New Mexico, which is at +600.
| Team | BetMGM Odds |
| Utah State | +225 |
| San Diego State | +325 |
| Grand Canyon | +525 |
| Boise State | +550 |
| New Mexico | +600 |
| Nevada | +1800 |
| Colorado State | +2000 |
| UNLV | +4000 |
| Wyoming | +8000 |
| Fresno State | +20000 |
| San Jose State | +75000 |
| Air Force | +75000 |
| Odds as of March 11 |
Mountain West Basketball Tournament Sleepers
If you’re looking for a sleeper outside of the top four that could make a run at the title, the Mountain West has plenty of them.
UNLV is home to the most talented scorer in the conference. Illinois transfer Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn has scored more than 30 points in five of the Rebels’ past seven games, including a season-high 42 against Grand Canyon and 32 in the regular-season finale at San Diego State. The Mountain West Newcomer of the Year leads the league with 21 points a game.
UNLV swept Utah State in the regular season, and the Rebels will earn another shot at the Aggies if they get past Wyoming in the first round.
Colorado State was the hottest team in the league for the final month of the regular season. The Rams won eight straight games until they fell, 78-67, at home against Boise State in the regular-season finale.
Boise State ended the regular season with five straight wins. Georgetown transfer Drew Fielder scored a season-high 33 points in the Broncos’ win over San Diego State on March 3 and 23 in the regular-season finale against Colorado State.
Mountain West Basketball Tournament Predictions
I predict San Diego State will win its fourth Mountain West Tournament title since 2017-18. It will be their first since 2022-23.
The Aztecs are a desperate team heading into their final Mountain West Tournament. They’re one of five teams leaving the league to join the Pac-12.
Not only is San Diego State desperate to win the title and cement its place as the conference’s flagship program on its way out the door, but the Aztecs may have to win the championship to ensure themselves a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the sixth year in a row.
The Aztecs have the experience and talent to win it, especially in the backcourt, where Byrd, Dixon-Waters, and BJ Davis form the conference’s best trio of guards. But it’s going to come down to which Magoon Gwath shows up. If the 7-foot sophomore shows the form that earned him Mountain West Defensive Player and Freshman of the Year last season, San Diego State will ride off into the sunset with the title.
