After an 8-0 start in Missouri Valley Conference play, Murray State looked like it might be the favorite to win the league’s regular-season title. The Racers (19-9 overall, 11-6 MVC) were the last remaining unbeaten team in The Valley.
Fast forward one month, and the Racers sometimes don’t look like that same team. They’ve gone 3-6 in their last nine games, and the offense isn’t clicking like it once was. They are coming off an 87-70 home loss to Belmont.
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Illinois State (17-10, 9-7) has hit its share of road bumps in the last month, struggling to string together wins. The Redbirds fell 83-56 to UIC in their last outing, only shot 36% from the field, and were outscored 60-22 in the paint.
They were without all-conference big man Chase Walker, who left last week’s contest against Valparaiso early with a hamstring injury. Chances are, he’s going to miss this contest as well.
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Murray State at Illinois State Odds
As of this writing, Illinois State is a 2.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Murray State, while the Over/Under is 156.5 points.
The Moneyline for ISU is -160 and +135 for MSU.
Murray State at Illinois State on TV
The matchup between Murray State and Illinois State will be televised on ESPNU.
Tonight’s game tips off at 9 p.m. ET.
Murray State at Illinois State Prediction
I predict Murray State gets the win. I also predict this game goes over 156.5 points.
Both of these squads are hard to trust right now, but it’s especially hard to trust the Redbirds without their best player. With Walker sidelined, Illinois State will be missing an inside presence, and I think it will struggle to contain Murray State center Fred King. The 6-foot-9, 267-pound senior is averaging 13.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, and two blocks per game.
Illinois State will lean on 7-foot-1 Brandon Lieb more often than usual, but the Redbirds will likely play small for most of the game. If that’s the case, it could create some issues for King on the defensive side of the ball. Belmont had success throwing different looks at King last week and also got him in foul trouble.
I think either King will be dominant around the rim on both sides of the ball, or he won’t have a huge impact, and I expect it to be the former.
If King is able to do damage in the post, it’ll likely open up the floor for the rest of Murray State’s offense. Although they have struggled lately, the Racers are still averaging 80.4 PPG in league play and, per KenPom, have an adjusted offensive efficiency of 112.7. Those marks are second in the league.
Led by Javon Jackson’s 16.6 PPG, the Racers have a handful of guys who can knock down shots. Roman Domon adds 13.7 PPG and five RPG for Murray State.
Illinois State’s defense has been stout for most of the season and is allowing 68.5 PPG against conference foes and an effective field goal percentage of 49.3%, which is third-best in the conference. The defense definitely takes a hit without Walker, however, which is a reason UIC was able to score 60 points in the paint.
The Redbirds still have some firepower offensively and the potential to take advantage of a suspect Murray State defense. The Racers allow 80.1 PPG and opponents to shoot 47.9% from the field. Both of those rank last in the conference.
ISU has a trio in the backcourt in Johnny Kinziger, Ty’Reek Coleman, and Boden Skunberg, who can each create their own shots. Kinziger nets 11.6 PPG while Coleman and Skunberg both average 10. Walker leads the team with 13.7 PPG and 5.4 RPG. The Redbirds average 69.6 PPG.
Murray State hasn’t been playing great lately, and Illinois State could easily prevail. But I think the absence of its best player is too much to overcome, and the Racers earn an important win here.
