With a win over Monmouth in the Coastal Athletic Association’s tournament championship, Hofstra secured its fifth-ever trip to the NCAA tournament and first since 2001. The Pride also won the CAA tourney in 2020, but the NCAA tourney was canceled that year.
Hofstra (24-10) has won seven games in a row and 11 of its last 12 after suffering a setback in January where it lost five consecutive games. This is the fourth-year the Pride has 20+ wins in five years under coach Speedy Claxton.
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One of the biggest storylines ahead of the NCAA Tournament was the arrest of Alabama standout guard Aden Holloway, who is facing drug charges and has since been suspended from the team.
Holloway is averaging 16.8 points per game for the Crimson Tide and has scored in double-figures in 11 consecutive games. He’s a big reason why the Tide won nine of their final 10 games to end the regular season. Alabama (23-9) went on to fall to Ole Miss in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament.
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Alabama vs. Hofstra Odds
As of this writing, Alabama is an 11.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Hofstra, while the Over/Under is 159.5 points.
The Moneyline for Alabama is -800 and +550 for Hofstra.
Alabama vs. Hofstra On TV
The matchup between Alabama and Hofstra will be televised on truTV.
Friday’s game is scheduled to tip off at 3:15 p.m. ET in Tampa.
Alabama vs. Hofstra Prediction
I predict Alabama covers the 11.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes over 159.5 points.
Even without one of their top players, I still think the Tide’s offense will be too much for the Pride to keep pace with. Per KenPom, Alabama’s offensive adjusted efficiency of 129 is the third-best in the country, while its 91.7 points per game are the most in Division I.
The Tide likes to get out and run the floor, and play at the fourth-quickest pace in college hoops. They don’t turn the ball over and shoot a ton of 3-pointers. Their 1,131 3-point attempts are also the most in the nation.
Six-foot-4 sophomore Labaron Philon Jr. will likely be selected in the first round of the NBA Draft in June and is averaging 21.1 PPG. Freshman Amari Allen adds 11.7 points and 7.1 rebounds per game.
Hofstra’s defense is solid, but it hasn’t faced an offense like this all season. The Pride only allows 66.1 PPG and owns a defensive effective field-goal percentage of 45.9%, which is ninth-best in the country. Their 44.2% allowed from inside the arc ranks third in D-I. Whether or not they’re able to run the Tide off the 3-point line and force them to take tough 2s will be a big factor.
It’ll also be huge for the Pride to take care of the ball and take quality shots, not allowing Alabama to get out in transition. I think the only way the Pride will give itself a chance to win is if it’s able to get set up in its defense more often than not.
That means Hofstra’s big-time duo of guards in Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead will need to have big games offensively. Davis is the CAA Player of the Year and is averaging 20.2 points and 4.6 assists per game. Edmead was voted the league’s Rookie of the Year and averages 15.9 points and 4.4 APG.
The Pride likes to use these two a lot in pick-and-roll situations where they can take advantage of what the defense gives them. I think Hofstra will stick with this and do what it can to get Alabama big man Aiden Sherrell out of the lane to try and get cleaner looks. Sherrell averages 2.3 blocks per game.
I like this Hostra group, and I would enjoy seeing them get an upset here, but overall, I think Alabama has too much firepower across the board, even without its second-leading scorer.
