If anyone was unfamiliar with Terrence Hill Jr., they were introduced to him Thursday night during VCU’s overtime win over North Carolina.
Hill finished with a game-high 34 points, 23 of which came in the second half and overtime, including the game-tying bucket near the end of regulation and the go-ahead 3-pointer with 15 seconds remaining in OT, lifting the Rams to an 82-78 victory. VCU (28-7) trailed by as much as 19 points in the second half, but rallied to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament, where it will meet Illinois.
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Illinois (25-8) is coming off a 105-70 win over Penn in the first round, where five players scored in double-figures. The Fighting Illini scored 1.55 points per possession and shot 50% from the field while freshman David Mirkovic finished with 29 points and 17 rebounds.
The only other time these teams met was in 2016, when Illinois defeated a VCU squad led by Mo Alie-Cox.
Illinois vs. VCU Odds
As of this writing, Illinois is a 10.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against VCU, while the Over/Under is at 151.5 points.
The Moneyline for Illinois is -550 and +410 for VCU.
Illinois vs. VCU On TV
The matchup between VCU and Illinois will be televised on CBS.
Saturday’s game is scheduled to tip off at 7:50 p.m. ET in Greenville, South Carolina.
Illinois vs. VCU Prediction
I predict VCU covers the 10.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes over 151.5 points.
This Illinois offense has been talked about as being one of the most efficient and effective offenses of all time. Per KenPom, their offensive adjusted efficiency of 131.7 ranks first in the country, and they’re averaging 85 points per game
They’re balanced, patient, adaptive, and are comfortable taking whatever the defense will give them. Big Ten Freshman of the Year Keaton Wagler makes the game look easy and leads the Illini with 17.9 points and 4.5 assists per game. Mirkovic adds 13.8 points and eight RPG, while Andrej Stojakovic and Kylan Boswell both score 13 PPG.
The Illini are also the tallest team in the country and, therefore, one of the top rebounding teams. Against Penn, they had 20 offensive rebounds. They get an o-board on 39.3% of opportunities, which is the third-highest rate in the nation.
VCU is going to need to be scrappy on the defensive end and on the glass if it wants a chance at an upset. They’re allowing 71.7 PPG and an o-board on 29.8% of chances.
Against UNC, the Rams had issues offensively in the first half and couldn’t get any type of penetration. They were no doubt out of rhythm. Illinois’ length could have that same type of defensive impact, where the Rams will struggle to get any dribble-drives or even any post touches.
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VCU found ways to adjust in the second half against UNC, though, and I have faith that coach Phil Martelli Jr. will have a game plan that will allow the Rams to counter Illinois’ size. Crashing the glass was huge against UNC, and the Rams will likely need to do that again Saturday night.
The Rams excel at getting to the free-throw line, which is where 22.7% of their points come. If they’re able to be aggressive and get to the stripe, that won’t only give them an opportunity to get some easy points, but it could also disrupt Illinois’ flow offensively, especially if the Illini start to score at will.
Six-foot-11 Lazar Djokovic attempted the most free throws in the Atlantic 10 this season (210) and averages 13.6 points and 5.4 RPG. Hill comes off the bench to lead the Rams with 14.9 points and 2.9 assists per game, and freshman Nyk Lewis has made some key plays the last few games. Lewis, the A-10 Rookie of the Year, had 16 points against UNC and 17 points and 11 rebounds against Dayton in the A-10 title game.
The Rams average 81.6 PPG and have an effective field-goal percentage of 54.1%. They also shoot a solid 36.9% from the perimeter.
I think how well VCU can control the pace and keep the Illini off the offensive glass will be the biggest key in this one. However, I think Illinois’ size will be too much of a factor on both ends of the floor and will propel it to the Sweet 16.
