NCAA Tournament: Most Likely First-Round Upsets

I’m a firm believer that the NCAA Tournament is the best sporting event each year, and the upsets and Cinderella runs are one of the main reasons why. 

Last year’s tournament saw Colorado State, Drake, and McNeese pull off first-round upsets as double-digit seeds, while Yale and Duquesne shocked a lot of people in 2024.

There are plenty of mid-majors who are capable of a first-round upset this week. And here are, who I believe, some of the best candidates to do so.

No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 North Carolina

The Rams are hot right now. They’ve only lost one game since Jan. 14 and are coming off an Atlantic 10 tournament title. Their defense has been playing great, and they have a deep roster with plenty of guys who can show up if they’re needed to. 

Junior big man Lazar Djokovic — arguably VCU’s top player — only played 11 minutes in the A-10 championship game and didn’t have his greatest performance, but VCU still found a way to win. The Rams are efficient offensively and can easily adapt to win in different styles, whether it’s getting to the rim and free-throw line, or knocking down shots from the outside. 

Djokovic should be able to suck UNC’s 7-footer Henri Veesaar out of the lane, which could create cleaner looks inside for the Rams. The Tar Heels are also without their best player in Caleb Wilson for the rest of the season, and have struggled at times without him, especially offensively. 

North Carolina isn’t great at the free-throw line or at creating turnovers. Missed free throws and not forcing turnovers will only give the Rams more opportunities, and they’re certainly good enough to take advantage of them.

No. 10 Santa Clara vs. No. 7 Kentucky

It wasn’t a great end to the season for Kentucky, which lost five of its last seven regular-season games. The Wildcats did win two games in the SEC tournament, but were bounced by Florida in the quarterfinals. 

Now, Kentucky gets a hungry Santa Clara squad that hasn’t been to the Big Dance since 1996. 

SCU has the capability of matching Kentucky’s size and length, which is something that poses a lot of problems for mid-majors when they go up against the big-name schools. The Broncos can also spread the floor, have guys 1-5 who can shoot it or get to the rim, and have smart guards who make good decisions. 

Kentucky struggled a few weeks ago against Texas A&M, which wants to get the ball up the floor and shoot a lot of 3s like SCU. I think the Broncos can have that same type of success as the Aggies. 

With this game in St. Louis, this isn’t an ideal travel spot for Santa Clara, but it could be worse. The Broncos do have 10 days of rest, and a terrific and experienced coach in Herb Sendek, who I think will lead his group to at least one NCAA tourney win this week.

No. 12 Akron vs. No. 5 Texas Tech

The Red Raiders continue to get hit by injuries. Not only did they lose first-team All-American JT Toppin to a torn ACL in February, but their Third Team All-American Christian Anderson suffered a groin injury in the Big 12 tournament. He has since been cleared to play, but there’s still a chance he’s less than 100%. Texas Tech also had LeJuan Watts sprain an ankle, but he’s reportedly good to go. 

Without Toppin, though, I think the Zips have the size to control the glass and maintain a more prominent inside presence with Amani Lyles. I think Lyles’ athleticism and ability to stretch the floor will pose some matchup problems. The Red Raiders have also struggled on the boards without Toppin.

The Zips have been dominant all season and have only lost one game since Jan. 6. They can score quick and often, and are shooting 38.5% from the outside. Per KenPom, their effective field-goal percentage of 58.5% ranks eighth in the country.

This is the third consecutive year Akron has been to the NCAA tourney, and most of their core group has been part of the ride, meaning they have experience and won’t be afraid of the moment. That includes six-foot guard Tavari Johnson, who is an elite playmaker and could easily become one of the stars of the tournament.