Selected as the top two preseason favorites in the Missouri Valley Conference, both Northern Iowa and Illinois State have had struggles in early January.
The Redbirds (13-6 overall, 5-3 MVC) lost three games in a row before a 26-point win over Bradley on Saturday. They held the Braves to just 35% from the field.
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After starting conference play 4-0, UNI (12-7, 4-4) has lost four consecutive games, including a 54-44 loss to Valparaiso on Saturday. Both teams only had one player score in double-figures, and the Panthers got zero scoring production from their reserves.
If UNI wants to end its losing skid against ISU, it’ll likely need some more guys to step up to try and match what the Redbirds can do offensively.
Northern Iowa at Illinois State Odds
As of this writing, Illinois State is a 6.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Northern Iowa, while the Over/Under is at 131.5 points.
The Moneyline for Illinois State is -290 and +235 for UNI.
Northern Iowa at Illinois State on TV
The matchup between UNI and Illinois State will be televised on ESPNU.
Tonight’s game tips off at 9 p.m. ET.
Northern Iowa at Illinois State Prediction
I predict Illinois State covers the 6.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes under 131.5 points.
These are the top two scoring defenses in the conference, with UNI allowing 59.7 points per game while the Redbirds are surrendering 67.1 PPG.
The Panthers play at the slowest tempo in the MVC and work through the shot clock to try to get quality looks. They hardly attack the offensive glass and prioritize getting back and getting set up defensively. The slow tempo and the minimal second-chance opportunities make for low-scoring outputs from the Panthers. They’re only averaging 61.8 PPG in league games.
Offensively, UNI has struggled in the past month, and more specifically since senior forward Tristan Smith has been sidelined. Smith was injured in the Jan. 4 contest against Evansville and hasn’t played since. The Panthers have lost each of the games he’s missed. He is key to this offense and consistently works the middle of the floor to create shots and spacing.
ISU’s defense plays with a lot of energy and forces tough shots and turnovers. Per KenPom, its adjusted defensive efficiency of 97.6 is the best in the MVC during conference games, and it is forcing a turnover on 18.9% of possessions.
Ben Schwieger (9.6 PPG) and Trey Campbell (13.3 PPG, 3.7 assists per game) have been generating most of the offense for the Panthers lately, but I think UNI’s offense will stall far too often against ISU.
For the Redbirds, they have plenty of guys who can get a bucket if UNI’s defense is posing problems. Despite UNI owning a size advantage, there’s likely to be a mismatch somewhere on the floor.
Led by Johnny Kinziger and Chase Walker, ISU has four guys averaging double-figures, while guard Ty Pence is averaging 9.9 PPG. Walker is averaging 14.2 PPG and 5.9 rebounds per game, while Kinziger adds 11.8 PPG.
ISU likes to utilize a lot of high ball screens and, more specifically, tries to get into two-man games with Walker diving toward the hoop. The 6-foot-9 junior is crafty around the rim and can also get to the free-throw line, where he is shooting 72% from the field. He’s also a willing and capable passer, and ISU has plenty of guys who can knock down shots from the outside.
The Redbirds are averaging 79.3 PPG and own an effective field-goal percentage of 54.9%.
Northern Iowa’s defense is solid, but I think the Redbirds have too many answers for it, and I don’t trust the Panthers offensively right now. They haven’t scored 70 or more points since Jan. 1.
I think ISU will build off its big win over Bradley and handle business at home against the Panthers.
