Two of the top four teams in a congested Horizon League meet when Green Bay hosts Purdue Fort Wayne at the Resch Center tonight.
Green Bay (14-12 overall, 9-6 HL) has been one of the biggest surprises in the conference so far after finishing 4-28 last year and being selected to finish last in the league’s preseason poll. The Phoenix have won two in a row and are coming off a 13-point win over Detroit Mercy on Saturday.
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Purdue Fort Wayne (14-11, 8-6) has lost its last two, including a five-point defeat at Wright State its last time out. The Mastodons have yet to beat any of the teams above them in the league standings — WSU, Oakland, and Green Bay.
These squads met on New Year’s Day, with Green Bay picking up a 72-54 win.
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Purdue Fort Wayne at Green Bay Odds
As of this writing, Green Bay is a 1.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Purdue Fort Wayne, while the Over/Under is 142.5 points.
The Moneyline for Green Bay is -130 and +110 for Purdue Fort Wayne.
Purdue Fort Wayne at Green Bay on TV
The matchup between Purdue Fort Wayne and Green Bay will be televised on ESPN2.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
Purdue Fort Wayne at Green Bay Prediction
I predict Purdue Fort Wayne gets the road win. I also predict this game goes under 142.5 points.
Neither of these teams want to play at a fast pace. Both squads like to spread the floor, work through their offense, and try not to force many shots.
Green Bay’s motion offense features a lot of screening and cutting, and they try to utilize an open middle of the floor to get dribble-drives and kick to open shooters or try to get to the rim and the free-throw line.
The Phoenix don’t shoot a ton, but they’re efficient both from the inside and the perimeter. They have the fewest field-goal attempts in the Horizon and average a league-low 75.1 points per game, but their effective field-goal percentage of 56.5% is the best in the conference. They’re also shooting 38.8% from deep.
Six-foot-4 sophomore guard C.J. O’Hara leads the Phoenix with 14.1 points per game. Forward Marcus Hall averages 13.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, while Preston Ruedinger chips in with 11.5 points and 5.3 assists per game.
Green Bay should be able to continue to find its looks against a Mastodons defense that allows an effective field-goal percentage of 54.3%, which is the second-worst mark in the league.
I think Purdue Fort Wayne should be able to find the looks it wants as well. The Mastodons’ offense features a lot of movement and a lot of dribble handoffs along the perimeter. Like Green Bay, they don’t play through the post often and tend to shoot a lot of 3s.
The Phoenix’s 3-point defense is decent, allowing opponents to shoot 36.6% from deep. Their adjusted defensive efficiency of 115.4 is the third-worst in the Horizon. The ‘Dons aren’t much more efficient on offense and have an AOE of 109.1, which is second-worst in the league. They’re also only scoring 74.6 PPG in league games.
Junior guard Corey Hadnot II highlights Purdue Fort Wayne’s offense, and his 20 PPG are second-most in the conference. Mikale Stevenson averages 15 PPG, while DeAndre Craig Jr. scores 14.4 PPG.
Whoever can establish an interior presence might also have the upper hand, and I think Purdue Fort Wayne is more capable of doing so.
Green Bay is playing better right now, but I think this is a get-right spot for the Mastodons, and they’re able to grind out a win here.
