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When it comes to realignment, the rumor mill rarely sleeps. But lately, there has been a little more smoke rising from the West.
Quietly and intentionally, the new-look Pac-12 has been navigating the murky waters of media negotiations, and based on what I’ve gathered, they may be nearing an end. Note here that this isn’t the same as their litigation with their friends in Colorado Springs, ahem, soon-to-be, Las Vegas.
The media deal for the Pac-12, version 2.0. Early indications and sources have said they are “modest, but good numbers.” What’s bigger are the implications and next steps. Massive kudos to those folks because getting information on this has been almost non-existent.
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The word is that the Pac-12’s upcoming media rights deal will feature three, maybe even four partners. That layered approach reflects the shifting landscape — think linear TV, streaming, maybe even some digital exclusivity — but it’s the payout that will raise eyebrows.
Expect figures in the range of $8 to $11 million per school, with incentive structures that might push it closer to $15 million in an absolute-best-case scenario. That’s significantly lower than the speculative numbers thrown around online by fans and armchair experts who pegged the range at $18–20 million. Just because you have Gonzaga doesn’t magically mean another $25 million is thrown around. Basketball media financials are at a significantly smaller ratio than those of football.
However, context matters: The average Mountain West payout has hovered around $5 million. So even if the Pac-12 deal settles at the lower end of projections, that’s still a significant media upgrade for its newest members — a clear win on that front.
Of course, that’s not without cost. Legal proceedings related to the Mountain West exits loom, and sunken transition costs in the millions are part of the long-term calculation. The Pac is playing the long game here — but again, they’ve played it well and are positioned for success.
The Mountain West, for its part, has rebounded well. They’ve already added teams and aren’t necessarily finished, but any expansion discussions are cooling until the league locks in its own next media deal — something that may come sooner than expected but still leaves timelines murky.
What does that mean for schools like Memphis or UTSA, who’ve been floated as potential Pac candidates? That $25–27 million exit fee from the AAC is a tough pill to swallow when the Pac-12 payout might not justify the move over a 10-year stretch. Still, in college athletics, short-term thinking often wins out — donors and boosters can bridge gaps, and new leadership can be left to handle the math later. It wouldn’t be the first time… nor the last.
If the finalized number falls closer to $10 million? That’s when the conversation shifts. At that level, only schools like Rice, with strong financial backing (endowment over $7 billion) and a long-standing desire to affiliate westward, might realistically jump. More likely, we see moves from Texas State, New Mexico State, or others whose current situations make a modest increase worthwhile.
Okay, so what about other Western Conference moves?
With Utah Valley’s move to the Big West complete, focus now turns to whether the Big West will pursue a 12th member. The answer appears to be yes. There’s real interest in the league — even from some West Coast Conference schools, sources say — but the real hinge point is Sacramento State.
On June 16, Sacramento State will gain some clarity from the NCAA regarding whether it can make an FBS independent move or not. If approved, they’ll need a home for the rest of their sports. That could push the Big West to act fast, and it might also trigger a domino effect across the Big Sky, which is reportedly reevaluating its own expansion posture.
Let’s not forget about another league that is in transition … again.
What Happens To The WAC?
The Western Athletic Conference is a league standing at a pivotal crossroads. Conversations are happening — some that don’t even involve current WAC members — and the possibilities are broad enough to warrant a docuseries. I might recommend catching up on or revisiting Game of Thrones. Because right now, there are a lot of plays and conversations unfolding — positioning, secret meetings, and, dare I say, a few plot twists looming on the horizon.
We’ll go deeper into the WAC’s outlook next week, but here’s a snapshot:
- The ASUN has emerged as a potential partner or landing spot for some WAC programs.
- There is ongoing interest from the Summit League and the MVFC in their football partnership.
- The two Utah-based WAC schools (Southern Utah and Utah Tech) would accept invites from the Big West or Summit in a heartbeat.
Right now, it’s a waiting game — and in realignment, chaos is opportunity — a little disruption, a couple of bold moves, and suddenly, the pecking order shifts.
Bottom Line:
The realignment chessboard isn’t done moving just yet. The Pac-12 is stabilizing, and as their media deal gets finalized, ripple effects will reach the MWC, AAC, WAC, and beyond. June and early July (some things might not come out until then) could be pivotal months, and if the last year has taught us anything, it’s that timing is everything — and nothing stays quiet forever.
