Saint Mary’s has earned three straight NCAA berths and all indications point to a fourth this year for the Gaels. In the early going, things are tight in the West Coast Conference, and Saint Mary’s looks to keep its place at the top when the Gaels (13-3, 3-0 WCC) host Loyola Marymount (9-7, 1-3) on Tuesday.
Things are tight at the top with Washington State and Gonzaga also 3-0 and San Francisco 3-1.
According to BetMGM’s college basketball odds, Gonzaga is the favorite to win the WCC regular-season title at -1200, while Saint Mary’s is second at +900. Saint Mary’s is the defending regular-season champion.
The Gaels have won three in a row following Saturday’s 81-58 victory at Portland.
For Loyola Marymount, it continues a brutal beginning WCC schedule. They own a WCC win over Oregon State and have lost at San Francisco and Washington State, and at home against Gonzaga. Those three teams are a combined 9-1 in the WCC.
Loyola Marymount at Saint Mary’s Betting Odds
Saint Mary’s is a 14.5-point favorite on BetMGM against Loyola Marymount with the Over/Under being 133.5.
The moneyline for Saint Mary’s is -2000, while it is +1000 for Loyola Marymount.
Loyola Marymount at Saint Mary’s On TV
The matchup between Loyola Marymount at Saint Mary’s will be televised on ESPN2.
The game begins at 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Jan. 7.
Loyola Marymount at Saint Mary’s Prediction
I like the Under as the best bet.
Saint Mary’s leads the WCC in defensive scoring, allowing 62.4 points per game, while the Gaels are sixth in scoring (75.1 PPG).
Loyola Marymount averages 71.3 points, while the Lions allow 70.7 points.
Saint Mary’s, despite all its success, runs a more deliberate offense. The Gaels have an adjusted tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) of 63.8 according to kenpom.com. That is just 351st nationally.
LMU, coming off Saturday’s 96-68 home loss to Gonzaga, will try for a more up-tempo game. The Lions’ adjusted tempo of 68.8 is 169th nationally.
All signs point to a lower-scoring game. Saint Mary’s is 11th and last in the WCC in free throw percentage (.672), while LMU is ninth (.695). Neither is a great three-point shooting team, with LMU eighth (.331) and Saint Mary’s ninth (.318).
For LMU to have a chance, the Lions must stop 6-foot-4 Saint Mary’s senior Augustas Marciulionis, who leads the Gaels in scoring (14.9 PPG) and assists (5.9).
Defensively, Saint Mary’s must stop the scoring duo of 6-foot-11 junior Jevon Porter (14.1 PPG) and 6-foot-7 graduate student Caleb Stone-Carrawell (13.4 PPG).
Another key will be on the boards, as Saint Mary’s leads the WCC in rebounding (41.8 per game) while LMU is eighth (35.6).
In its three WCC losses, LMU’s average margin of defeat has been 19 points, so if one had to take either team, I would go with Saint Mary’s laying the points.
