Twenty-one FBS programs changed head coaches in 2018. Only 14 FBS programs will change coaches in 2019.
Of the 21 programs with new head coaches, nine are Power Five programs. Next year only, only five Power Five programs will change coaches.
Let's dive into a dark rabbit hole of meaningless, reckless and (likely) inaccurate speculation!
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Arizona
Current Head Coach: Kevin Sumlin
New Head Coach: Neal Brown
It won't be cheap. If fired in the first two years of his five-year contract, Kevin Sumlin is owed $10 million. Let's take a shot and guess the Wildcats will pull the trigger after a miserable 2019 season.
Troy has somehow held onto Neal Brown for, entering 2019, five seasons. Brown, 38, hasn't coached west of Lubbock but has Power Five coordinator experience and will have a fourth straight double-digit-win season at Troy.
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Buffalo
Current Head Coach: Lance Leipold
New Head Coach: Mike Lynch
If Leipold moves on (see below), Buffalo could target an in-house replacement like Rob Ianello or Brian Borland. If not — or Leipold's staff follows him — might they hop on I-90 and grab Syracuse offensive coordinator and running backs coach Mike Lynch? Lynch is a longtime Dino Babers' assistant who's done brilliant work with the Orange.
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Coastal Carolina
Current Head Coach: Joe Moglia
Next Head Coach: Brian Bohannon
Joe Moglia was the right guy to lead Coastal Carolina's FCS-to-FBS transition. Is he the right guy to make the Chanticleers consistent Sun Belt contenders?
After watching nearby East Carolina and Charlotte make home-run FCS hires, Coastal Carolina could do the same and target Brian Bohannon. The Kennesaw State head coach should do better than a low-level Sun Belt program, but I also thought Mike Houston would get serious Power Five interest.
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Houston
Current Head Coach: Major Applewhite
Next Head Coach: Dana Holgorsen
Major Applewhite has 15 wins in two seasons, Houston's second-lowest two-year total since 2004-05. The 56-point loss to Army was only one game but it capped another underwhelming season.
Dana Holgorsen was reportedly interested in the Texas Tech job. If true and he badly wants to be in Texas, might he take a step down to get there?
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Indiana
Current Head Coach: Tom Allen
Next Head Coach: Lance Leipold
A third straight five-win (or fewer) season could put Allen on the hot seat. If the Hoosiers move on, Lance Leipold makes a ton of sense. The 54-year-old built a Division-III powerhouse, led Buffalo to their first-ever 10-win season and has recruited every corner of the midwest.
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Miami (FL)
Current Head Coach: Mark Richt
Next Head Coach: Josh Heupel
Dismissal — or more likely a "mutual parting of the ways" — two years after going 10-3, winning the ACC Coastal and flirting with a playoff berth? This is a leap.
If athletics director Blake James doesn't call Manny Diaz or another coach with strong Miami ties, Josh Heupel could be in line for a promotion job with another strong season.
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New Mexico
Current Head Coach: Bob Davie
Next Head Coach: Zach Arnett
Davie survived another three-win season and off-the-field issues. He won't survive another poor season.
An Albuquerque native and former Lobos' linebacker (2005-08), Zach Arnett was promoted to San Diego State defensive coordinator in 2018 after four years coaching linebackers.
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North Texas
Current Head Coach: Seth Littrell
Next Head Coach: Graham Harrell
Seth Littrell is interested in other jobs; he flirted with the Kansas State job and, reportedly, only returned to North Texas because of contract issues.
If he's poached by a Power Five program (see below) next year, his offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, Graham Harrell, must be the Mean Green's top target.
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Rutgers
Current Head Coach: Chris Ash
Next Head Coach: Jeff Monken
Rutgers will never win consistently in the Big Ten East. Never.
They need to go outside the box and hire a triple-option coach.
Jeff Monken doesn't need blue-chip talent to run a system that set a program record for wins in 2018. He should be able to do better than Rutgers, though clearly other programs aren't interested in winning.
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San Jose State
Current Head Coach: Brent Brennan
Next Head Coach: Troy Taylor
San Jose State finally showed signs of life late in the season, but Brent Brennan still has only three total wins in three seasons and will struggle to win more than one or two games in 2019.
This is a bad job. A really, really, really, really bad job. Regardless of what Troy Taylor does in his first season as Sacramento State head coach, he'd be a home-run hire.
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Troy
Current Head Coach: Neal Brown
Next Head Coach: Matt Moore
With Brown off to Arizona, Troy convinces offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Matt Moore to stay as head coach. A Georgia native who coached high school football in Alabama, Moore is also a former assistant at Texas Tech, Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee.
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Tulsa
Current Head Coach: Philip Montgomery
Next Head Coach: Ruffin McNeill
I thought Philip Montgomery would win big at Tulsa and take a Power Five job back in Texas. Whoops.
He won 16 games in his first two seasons, including 10 in 2016, but has five total wins since and will struggle to win more than a few games in 2019.
If Oklahoma defensive coordinator (and former East Carolina head coach) Ruffin McNeill is looking for another head-coaching opportunity, this might work.
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UConn
Current Head Coach: Randy Edsall
Next Head Coach: Joe Harasymiak
Who would take this job? How about 32-year-old former Maine head coach Joe Harasymiak?
Harasymiak led Maine to a 10-win season and the 2018 CAA Championship before leaving for an assistant job at Minnesota. In a tough job, he did a brilliant job with talent identification and development and could maybe build UConn into something other than a toilet.
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West Virginia
Current Head Coach: Dana Holgorsen
Next Head Coach: Seth Littrell
With Holgorsen at Houston, West Virginia goes to The Lone Star State for his replacement.
Almost hired by Big 12 foe Kansas State as Bill Snyder's replacement, Seth Littrell goes to West Virginia in hopes of winning their first-ever Big 12 title and first conference title since 2011.
