Eleven years after Colt McCoy, Jordan Shipley, Emmanuel Acho, and an army of Texans led Texas into a new decade with an appearance in the BCS National Championship, the Longhorns are entering a new decade with a depleted army of Texans and zero national relevance (in the favorable sense) since winning 13 games in 2009.
McCoy was born in Hobbs, N.M., a small city one mile from the Texas border and two hours southwest of Lubbock, but listed Tuscola, Texas, as his hometown on official Texas rosters from 2005-10. He was one of 105 Texans on their 2008 roster, 92.1 percent of a 114-man roster that won 12 games. A year later, McCoy was one of 105 Texans on the 112-man roster that won 13 games, tying the single-season record and setting the two-year record of 25 wins.
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A decade later, Texas football is still led by Texans, but since the program imploded after the 2009 season, the ratio of Texans has plummeted. From 2010-19, they still had one of the highest in-state representations among all FBS teams but the percent dropped each year, including a 4.2-point drop in Charlie Strong's first season as head coach in 2014:
Did Texas still have dozens of in-state contributors each season? Of course. In 2019, despite a 19-point in-state decline from 10 years ago, Texans like Sam Ehlinger, Keontay Ingram, Zach Shackelford, Samuel Cosmi, and Brandon Jones played big roles.
Of those five notable in-state contributors in recent years, only Brandon Jones was a top-10 recruit in the state (247Sports), an arbitrary group the Longhorns haven't been as successful recruiting since 2012.
From 2009-12, Texas signed at least five of the top-10 in-state recruits each year. They've done that only once in the last eight years, including five top-10 players total from 2013-15 and zero in 2017. They did land seven of the state's top 10 players in the nation's third-ranked class in 2018 but have since signed five total, routinely losing in-state talent to Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and others.
"Recruiting here in this state is going to be our lifeblood," Herman said in February while announcing a 20-man 2020 recruiting class that included 19 in-state players. "We love going out of state when the interest is reciprocated, but we know that for us to have the kind of success that is expected here, we’ve got to do a great job in our state, and I feel like we’ve done that.”
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There are exceptions, of course, as Herman noted; Texas landed only of two of the state's top 10 players in 2019 but signed five-star receiver Bru McCoy, the nation's ninth-ranked player who would've been the top-ranked high school recruit in the state. Granted, McCoy transferred to USC before playing a snap at Texas but was still targeted and landed by Tom Herman's staff. Also in 2019, they plucked four-star top-50 Arizona receiver Jake Smith, who would've been the eighth-ranked recruit in Texas.
Beyond the top-10 in-state players, the Longhorns' total in-state signees were declining for most of the last decade until last year's class:
| Year | In-State Signees | Percent of Total Signees |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 19 | 95.0% |
| 2009 | 19 | 95.0% |
| 2010 | 22 | 88.0% |
| 2011 | 21 | 95.5% |
| 2012 | 24 | 85.7% |
| 2013 | 13 | 86.7% |
| 2014 | 17 | 73.9% |
| 2015 | 20 | 66.7% |
| 2016 | 24 | 82.8% |
| 2017 | 13 | 72.2% |
| 2018 | 19 | 70.4% |
| 2019 | 12 | 46.2% |
| 2020 | 19 | 95.0% |
As of May 20, 10 of the Longhorns' 11 commits in the 2021 class were from Texas. Of the five top-10 players who've made commitments, three have chosen Texas, though projections indicate it's unlikely they'll continue at a 60-percent pace; the state's top-ranked player, offensive tackle Tommy Brockermeyer, is the only top-10 player with 247Sports Crystal Ball predictions for Texas.
Texas had fewer wins than Northwestern, Western Kentucky, and 50 other FBS teams last decade for a lot of reasons.
Did the Longhorns go 71-57 last decade because they didn't have enough in-state players? That's shoving a complex problem into a tiny bucket.
Did the Longhorns go 71-57 last decade because they whiffed on the top eight players of a loaded in-state class in 2014? Because they lost Marvin Wilson to Florida State and Jeff Okudah to Ohio State in 2017? Because they couldn't land K'Lavon Chaisson, J.K. Dobbins, and Jaylen Waddle?
That's a bigger bucket.
