In the era of the 12-team format in the College Football Playoff, at least one Group of Five team is guaranteed to make the CFP.
That team will need to win a conference championship, and that won’t be easy in any G5 league this season. Here’s a look at the G5 teams that have the best chances of appearing in the College Football Playoff and competing for a national championship.
2025 G5 CFP Predictions
I predict Memphis will make the College Football Playoff as of right now. But South Florida and JMU, to me, are intriguing picks as well.
The Case For Memphis
Memphis wasn’t a favorite for many people to win the American. But the Tigers are one of few teams in the G5 that has just one loss and a Power Four win on their resume.
The Tigers are 8-1 and 4-1 in American Conference play and beat Arkansas earlier this year. They also have a ranked win after defeating USF. They did lose to UAB, so it’ll be interesting to see how that impacts Memphis later on.
The Tigers do have to play Tulane, East Carolina, and Navy yet – and none of those games will be easy – but two of those contests are at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis.
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The Case For USF
It’s not really hard to make this argument considering who the Bulls have beat.
The Bulls started the year with a decisive 34-7 win over Boise State, which was ranked at the time. Then USF followed that up with an 18-16 upset victory over Florida, which was ranked 13th in the AP Top 25, on the road.
USF did lose to Miami but followed that up with four straight wins. The Bulls (6-2, 3-1) did lose by three points against Memphis, so that could complicate things as they aim to earn an American Conference Championship berth.
But with Byrum Brown at quarterback, the Bulls have a high-powered offense as well as a solid defense. And with two ranked wins, the Bulls could have a strong resume by the end of the season.
The Case For JMU
James Madison was my pick to win the Sun Belt in the preseason, and the Dukes have proven they are a team to be reckoned with.
The Dukes are 7-1 overall and 5-0 in conference play. Their only loss of the season was at Louisville, which keeps rising up the AP rankings, and JMU was in control for most of that contest.
The Dukes have won six straight since then, and only one of those games was decided by less than 10 points. JMU has one of the best defenses in the country, and the Dukes’ offense has found a rhythm in recent weeks.
If JMU wins the rest of its regular season games and the Sun Belt Championship, the Dukes will have a strong case for a CFP spot.
2025 CFP Championship Odds For G5 Teams
There are college football betting odds for G5 teams to win the national championship. The squads with betting odds to win the title at BetMGM are:
- Memphis +30000
- Tulane +50000
- San Diego State +50000
2025 College Football Championship Predictions
I predict Indiana will play Oregon in the College Football Playoff national championship with Oregon winning.
Right now, I think the Ducks, led by quarterback Dante Moore, are the best squad in college football.
I really like how Indiana has played, and I think the Hoosiers have a good chance to make a deep run considering what QB Fernando Mendoza has done. But I think Oregon is capable of playing at the highest level in the CFP.
College Football Playoff Teams Projections
I predict Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, and Alabama will be the top four teams in the College Football Playoff at the end of the season.
I also predict the Group of Five conference championship winner ranked the next highest will be Memphis, and I believe the CFP Selection Committee will put the Tigers in the 12th spot.
From there, I’m projecting Georgia, Oregon, Notre Dame, BYU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss will be in the CFP.
2025 CFP Games Schedule
The first round of the CFP will be played on Friday, Dec. 19, and Saturday, Dec. 20. The CFP quarterfinals will take place on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and Thursday, Jan. 1. The CFP semifinals will occur on Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9.
In the first round, the No. 12-seeded team will play at the No. 5-seeded team. The No. 9 team will go on the road to face the No. 8 team. The No. 11 team will travel to take on the No. 6 team. And the No. 10 team will compete at the No. 7 team.
The winner of the 5/12 matchup will play the No. 4-seeded team in the quarterfinals. Whoever wins the 8/9 contest will go against the top-seeded team. The victor in the 6/11 contest will next face the No. 3 team. And whoever is triumphant in the 7/10 bout will compete against the No. 2-seeded team.
The winners of the games involving the No. 1-seeded team and the No. 4-seeded team will square off in the semifinals, and the winner of the games involving the No. 3-seeded team and the No. 2-seeded team will also play in the semifinals.
The victor of those two contests will see each other in the national championship.
College Football Playoff Rankings
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has yet to release any rankings and will do so for the first time on Tuesday.
So if we’re going off of the latest Associated Press Top 25, the teams in the CFP right now would be:
- No. 1 Ohio State
- No. 2 Indiana
- No. 3 Texas A&M
- No. 4 Alabama
- No. 5 Georgia
- No. 6 Oregon
- No. 7 Ole Miss
- No. 8 BYU
- No. 9 Texas Tech
- No. 10 Notre Dame
- No. 11 Virginia
- No. 12 Memphis
College Football Playoff Format
The College Football Playoff will feature 12 teams, just like it did last season.
The five highest-ranked conference champions in the FBS – decided by the CFP Selection Committee – will make the field, as well as the seven highest-ranked teams that didn’t win a conference title.
Unlike last year, where the four conference title winners ranked the highest earned a bye, the four highest-ranked teams will have a bye and the remaining squads will compete in the first round.
The higher seeds in those matchups will host in the first round. The top four teams with the bye will be given a bowl game, like the Sugar Bowl, and the four teams playing in the two semifinal games will also be assigned to another bowl.
Re-seeding will not occur, nor will alterations be made to avoid rematches from the regular season or contests between teams in the same conference.
