Troy Calhoun has built Air Force football into a consistent winner. The Falcons have won at least nine games in a season eight times and played in 13 bowl games since he took over at the service academy in 2007.
Air Force won 10 games in 2021 and 2022 and nine in 2023, but the Falcons fell off of a cliff last season. Despite winning their last four regular season games, they finished 5-7, marking just the fifth losing season of the Calhoun era.
To understand what went wrong last season, all you have to do is look at what is usually the team’s bread and butter: the running game. Air Force’s triple option has been a thorn in more than one coach’s side, but it was far from a juggernaut last year.
The Falcons rushed for almost 1,000 less yards last fall than it did in 2023 when it racked up 3,660. Air Force finished last season with 2,688 and ranked No. 4 in the Mountain West with 224 rushing yards a game. Injuries and a lack of experience at quarterback hampered the rushing attack.
The Falcons believe they have enough talent in the backfield to get back to a bowl game and maybe even contend for the Mountain West title this season, but they once again find themselves lacking experience at quarterback, and an almost completely retooled defense is going to have to jell in a hurry.
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Air Force Football’s Mountain West Title Betting Odds
Air Force’s odds to win the Mountain West are +1400, via BetMGM.
Air Force Football’s Betting Odds & Over/Under Win Total
- Air Force’s win total Over/Under is 6.5.
- Under 6.5 is at -135.
- Over 6.5 is at +115.
Air Force Football’s 2025 Schedule
Aug. 30 vs. Bucknell
Sept. 13 @ Utah State
Sept. 20 vs. Boise State
Sept. 27 vs. Hawaii
Oct. 4 @ Navy
Oct. 11 @ UNLV
Oct. 18 vs. Wyoming
Nov. 1 vs. Army
Nov. 8 @ San Jose State
Nov. 15 @ UConn
Nov. 22 vs. New Mexico
Nov. 28 @ Colorado State
Bold indicates Mountain West games
Key Air Force Football Returners
2024 All-Mountain West 2nd Team
P Luke Freer
Honorable Mention
OL Costen Cooley
Air Force Football Preview
Air Force has always relied on the novelty of its scheme and stingy defense to overcome its lack of athleticism compared to other FBS teams. This year’s team is senior heavy, which is usually a good sign for the Falcons, but they’re going to be dealing with little experience at quarterback and a defense that is full of new faces.
QB Johnson Must Improve & Stay Healthy
Quentin Hayes came on late last season and finished No. 2 on the team with 466 rushing yards. But he’s gone, which means it should be Josh Johnson’s job to lose. He played in six games and started one last season.
Johnson’s stats (94 rushing yards, 6-for-14 passing for 126 yards) don’t exactly jump out, but he showed he has the athleticism to run the option, and experience is key in that system. Understanding how to read the defense, when to pitch the ball, and when to keep it comes with hours of practice.
There isn’t much else in terms of experience in the quarterbacks’ room. In fact, no other quarterback on the roster played a snap in 2025.
Liam Szarka is a sophomore, who racked more than 6,000 passing yards and 1,500 rushing yards in his high school career. The quarterbacks room also includes junior Maguire Martin and sophomores Brody Fortunati and Jackson King, none of whom have taken a snap in their college careers.
Will The Running Game Return To Form?
Air Force’s running game is usually among the best in the Mountain West, if not the country, and the Falcons have enough experienced backs that they could return to that form this year.
The inside game should once again run through big, physical fullbacks Dylan Carson and Owen Allen. Carson led the team with 600 yards and five touchdowns on the ground last fall. Allen added 335 yards and two scores, but both were slowed by injuries.
Seniors Kade Frew and Caden Harris are lightning quick and will see more of the outside runs. Harris will also line up at wide receiver again after he led the team with 23 catches for 368 yards and two touchdowns last season.
They’ll be running behind a veteran offensive line, led by honorable mention All-Mountain West center/guard Costen Cooley. Trevor Tate is back at left tackle, and 295-pound junior Alec Falk is back at left guard.
Rebuilding The Defense
As bad as the offense was, Air Force’s defense was one of the best in the Mountain West last season. The Falcons gave up the fewest yards per game in the conference, and they surrendered 23.3 points a game, which ranked No. 3 in the league.
The problem is the bulk of last season’s starters were lost to graduation or the transfer portal, including the team’s top four tacklers: defensive backs Cambry Goff, Jamari Bellamy, and Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner as well as linebacker Osaro Aihe.
The Falcons have some experience back up front. Defensive end Daniel Grobe posted 31 tackles last season. Payton Zdroik and Aidan Swartz are back on the inside.
Blake Fletcher and Luke Fisher should lead the linebackers, but neither has much experience. Safety Kyle Chen should find a starting role after seeing time last year, but the rest of the starters in the secondary will be new.
Air Force Football Season Prediction
I predict Air Force will not win the Mountain West Championship and will win fewer than 6.5 games.
The running game will improve and the offensive line has a chance to be one of the best in the Mountain West, but a lack of experience at quarterback and in the secondary are concerns as the Falcons have to face Boise State, UNLV, Hawaii, and San Jose State as part of their conference slate.
