There’s no doubt a new energy has surrounded the Texas State football program since GJ Kinne became the head coach.
The Bobcats have been one of the better teams in the Sun Belt, including last year when they went 8-5 overall and 5-3 in league play. They beat UTSA early in the season and lost to Arizona State, which won the Big 12 and earned a bye in the College Football Playoff, by just three points. Texas State also capped the year with a 30-28 victory over North Texas in the First Responder Bowl.
Now the Bobcats are headed to the Pac-12 next season. But before they jump conferences, they have an opportunity to take the Sun Belt crown on the way out.
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Texas State Football’s Sun Belt Title Betting Odds
Texas State’s odds to win the Sun Belt are +600, via BetMGM. The team’s odds of winning the Sun Belt West are +300.
Texas State’s betting odds of making the College Football Playoff are +1800.
Texas State Football’s Betting Odds & Over/Under Win Total
Texas State’s win total Over/Under is 7.5, with Under 7.5 at -160 and Over 7.5 at +135.
Texas State Football’s 2025 Schedule
Aug. 30 vs. Eastern Michigan
Sept. 6 @ UTSA
Sept. 13 @ Arizona State
Sept. 20 vs. Nicholls
Oct. 4 @ Arkansas State
Oct. 11 vs. Troy
Oct. 18 @ Marshall
Oct. 28 vs. JMU
Nov. 8 @ Louisiana
Nov. 15 @ Southern Miss
Nov. 22 vs. ULM
Nov. 29 vs. South Alabama
Dec. 5 Sun Belt Championship
Bold indicates Sun Belt contests
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Texas State Football Is A Frontrunner To Win The Sun Belt
Texas State could end up making it to the Sun Belt Championship this year before going to the Pac-12. But the Bobcats will need strong play from their quarterback – whoever that ends up being.
Brad Jackson, Pitt transfer Nate Yarnell, SMU transfer Keldric Luster, and Auburn transfer Holden Geriner have been competing for the job. Yarnell played in nine games last year with two starts, passing for 1,056 yards, 10 touchdowns, and five interceptions on a 58.7% completion rate. Luster and Geriner saw limited action at their respective schools last year, as Luster appeared in five games and Geriner appeared in two. Jackson played in three games at Texas State in 2024, completing 8 of 15 passes for 118 yards and a TD while rushing for 164 yards and four TDs.
Ismail Mahdi, Texas State’s leading running back last year, is gone. But Lincoln Pare, who ran for 554 yards and eight touchdowns while catching 12 passes for 134 yards, and Torrance Burgess Jr., who was third on the team with 367 rushing yards to go with two TDs and caught 10 passes for 111 yards, are both back.
Texas State’s top three receivers from last year are gone, but Chris Dawn Jr. and Beau Sparks are returning. Dawn caught 37 passes for 418 yards and six touchdowns in 2024, while Sparks added 271 yards and two scores on 25 receptions.
Left tackle Dorion Strawn and right guard Tellek Lockette return to lead the offensive line after starting all 13 games last season.
On defense, just three of Texas State’s top 12 tacklers from last year are back. But the Bobcats should be strong up front.
Defensive end Kalil Alexander led Texas State with 6.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss while adding 39 tackles, two pass breakups, and two fumble recoveries. Fellow defensive end Jo’Laison Landry was third on the team with 4.5 sacks and 7.5 TFLs and recorded 33 total tackles and two forced fumbles.
Ryan Nolan is back as well. The safety was third on the team with 52 total tackles while recovering two fumbles.
Linebacker Treylin Payne and cornerback Trez Moore are also back after tying a team lead with two interceptions each. Payne recorded 28 tackles last year while Moore had 26, three of which were for loss.
Texas State Football Season Prediction
I predict Texas State won’t win the Sun Belt but will go Over 7.5 regular season wins.
Reaching eight victories during the regular season shouldn’t be too difficult for head coach GJ Kinne in his third season. This roster is loaded and ready to win.
In fact, I could see Texas State going 3-1 in non-conference play, though that matchup at in-state opponent UTSA won’t be easy. Even if the Bobcats are 2-2 going into their Sun Belt schedule, I think they will be 6-2 after that point.
The games that worry me the most for Texas State are against James Madison at home and at Louisiana. I could also see trips to Marshall and Southern Miss proving to be problematic.
But I still expect Texas State to be one of the best teams in the Sun Belt in 2025.
