The Air Force football team hasn’t posted three-straight losing seasons in head coach Troy Calhoun’s 20 years, but that’s what could be facing the Falcons in the new-look Mountain West this year.
Air Force went 4-8 last season and won just three conference games for the second year in a row. That was thanks in large part to a defense that couldn’t stop anyone. The Falcons gave up 423 yards a game, which ranked No. 10 in the league. They also surrendered 265 passing yards a game, which ranked last in the conference.
This season opens with an air of promise, though. Thanks to the shifting college football landscape and a roster full of veterans, Air Force has a chance to get back to the form it showed with back-to-back 10-win seasons in 2021 and 2022.
Boise State, San Diego State, Utah State, Fresno State and Colorado State left to join the new Pac-12. UTEP, Northern Illinois and North Dakota State have joined the Mountain West, but with a void at the top of the conference and so much experience on the roster, can Air Force claim the first championship of the Mountain West’s new era?
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Air Force Season Preview
Unlike most teams in the era of the transfer portal, Air Force enters the season with an abundance of experience everywhere from quarterback and fullback to the back end of the defense.
It’s Szarka Time
Liam Szarka is back at quarterback after leading the team with 922 rushing yards and 22 total touchdowns before suffering an injury late in the season. He showed he has the arm to throw when needed, and his nine passing touchdowns were the most by an Air Force quarterback in a season since Donald Hommand III threw 13 in 2019.
There’s no shortage of talent behind him. Josh Johnson threw four touchdowns in five appearances last season, and Kemper Hodges is a talented runner with a 245-pound frame.
The Old-School Falcons Are Back
Air Force shocked the world with its willingness to air it out last season, paving the way for Cade Harris and Quin Smith to torch a lot of defenses.
Both of them are gone, as is top tight end Bruin Fleischmann, and while receivers Matt Long and Owen Chambers have the speed to get behind defenses, more big plays should come out of the backfield this season.
Fullback Owen Allen is back after putting up 750 yards and five touchdowns last fall, and 190-pound senior Rocco Conti has speed to burn. Kade Few and Jalen Turner should see their share of carries, too.
Can The Back Half Of The Defense Improve?
Linebacker Blake Fletcher may be one of the best in the Mountain West after leading the team with 108 tackles last season. He’s joined again by Dallas Daley and Isaac Hubert, who combined for 75 tackles and five sacks last fall.
Where the Falcons really need to see improvement is the secondary, where there is also no shortage of experience this year.
Top cornerbacks Korey Johnson and Mikhail Seiken both played in at least 11 games last season. Safety Matt Mustell posted 59 tackles and a team-high three interceptions, while fellow safety Roger Jones Jr. earned honorable mention all-conference recognition with 76 tackles. Another safety, Kyle Chen, is back after he started four games in 2024 but missed last season with an injury.
Rebuilt Defensive Front
Defensive line stalwart Payton Zdroik is gone. Air Force will have a new trio of starters up front, led by 285-pound junior Bennett Williams and 280-pound senior Lukia Rawls Jr.
Defensive end Jaylen Reese joins Hubert as the team’s top pass rushers, while the Falcons will lean on Chaz Barnett to stuff the run.
Air Force Breakout Candidate
WR Jonah Dawson – The speedy junior caught 12 passes for 260 yards and a touchdown, averaging more than 21 yards per catch last season.
Air Force’s Mountain West Championship Betting Odds
Air Force’s college football betting odds to win the Mountain West championship are at +600, according to BetMGM. New Mexico and UNLV are the favorites at +270.
Air Force’s Betting Odds & Win Total Over/Under
- Air Force’s Over/Under win total is 7.5 games, according to BetMGM.
- The Over is at +125.
- The Under is at -160.
2026 Air Force Schedule
Sept. 5 vs. Duquesne
Sept. 12 vs. North Dakota State
Sept. 26 at Nevada
Oct. 3 vs. Navy
Oct. 10 at Northern Illinois
Oct. 17 vs. UNLV
Oct. 23 at Wyoming
Oct. 31 vs. UConn
Nov. 7 at Army
Nov. 14 vs. San Jose State
Nov. 20 vs. UTEP
Nov. 27 at New Mexico
Bold indicates Mountain West games
Air Force Season Prediction
I predict Air Force won’t win the Mountain West championship, but the Falcons will win more than 7.5 games. That is a high number given they have Navy and Army to contend with every year, but the Falcons get Navy, North Dakota State, UNLV and UConn at home this season. That combined with some other winnable games in the conference could boost the Falcons to eight victories.
Air Force is a dangerous team when the depth chart is full of veterans the way it is this year. Szarka is in for a special season, and another big-play machine should emerge to replace Harris.
The defense remains the question. If a cast of mostly the same characters from last season can improve enough, the Falcons should at least find themselves in the top half of the Mountain West.
