2026 Arkansas State Football Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & Schedule

Following a 1-4 start last season, Arkansas State went on to win five of its last seven games to earn a spot in the XBox Bowl, where it defeated Missouri State. The Red Wolves were the only team in the FBS last season to start 1-4 and reach a bowl.

Last season was also the second in a row where the Red Wolves finished tied for second in the Sun Belt West. Now, in Butch Jones’ fifth season as head coach, can ASU break through and win its first Sun Belt title under Jones?

Arkansas State Season Preview

One of the biggest tasks for Jones this offseason was replacing quarterback Jaylen Raynor. The three-year starter was one of the most electric players in the league and made the Red Wolves’ offense a threat at all times. 

It looks like there are four transfers vying to replace Raynor as this year’s QB1. 

Transfers Competing At Quarterback For Arkansas State

Among the QBs who transferred in, Trey Owens could be the one who separates himself. The redshirt sophomore spent the last two years at Texas where he redshirted in 2024 and didn’t see any playing time last season, but he seems to have the highest ceiling of the group. He was a four-star prospect and the 16th-ranked QB nationally out of high school.

Redshirt junior Ethan Crawford has experience in the Sun Belt, having played for Southern Miss the past three seasons. He saw the field sporadically but was productive and utilized for his rushing abilities. The other two transfers, Drew Dickey and Jérémy St-Hilaire, both come from Vanderbilt where each spent multiple seasons and followed new ASU offensive coordinator Garrett Altman, who was Vandy’s QB coach the past two seasons.

Arkansas State Returns Production At WR & RB

Whoever earns the starting job, though, will have plenty of playmakers to lean on within the offense. The Red Wolves return their top two running backs from last season and two of their top three wideouts. 

Junior Devin Spencer and redshirt senior Kenyon Clay split the starts in the backfield last season as Spencer rushed for 559 yards and Clay rushed for 523. Both guys finished with three TDs on the ground, and Clay added 205 yards and three TDs receiving. 

While Corey Rucker – the Sun Belt’s all-time leader in receiving yards – is gone, redshirt junior Chauncy Cobb should do a solid job in maintaining that production. Cobb started 12 games and grabbed 73 receptions for 797 yards last season. Hunter Summers also started nearly every contest and finished with 505 yards and four scores on 44 receptions. 

The starting QB will also get the benefit of having some returning experience on the offensive line. There will be three returners who started at least nine games on the O-line last season with Mason Myers, Wil Saxton and Tristian Smith. Myers (center) and Saxton (right guard) started all 13 games while Smith (left guard) started the first nine before suffering a season-ending injury.

An offense with this many returning pieces and familiarity isn’t all that common in today’s college football landscape, and the Red Wolves have the potential to have a solid offense.

Safeties Expected To Steady Arkansas State’s Defense

There isn’t a ton of returning production throughout the defense for the Red Wolves, but they will have a solid tandem returning at safety with AG McGhee and Brandon Barnes. Both guys started every game last year and ranked third and fourth on the roster in tackles. McGhee, a senior, registered 83 tackles, five pass breakups and one interception while Barnes, a junior, logged 68 tackles, two PBUs and one pick.

Also in the secondary are transfer cornerbacks who I expect will be battling for snaps. That includes Noah Flores from Utah State and Dontrae Henderson from Indiana. Sophomore Kyle Williams returns after seeing action in 11 games last season. 

Senior Brandon Greil returns at the STAR position after starting eight games last year and securing 54 tackles. He’ll be competing with Kennesaw State transfer Five Hamilton for the job. Both guys are solid and should make a lot of plays this year.

The top two tacklers and linebackers from last year are gone, but returning sophomore Nigel Nelson started five games and registered 54 tackles. He should have a shot at earning a starting role. Tre Stevens also transferred in from Lafayette College where he started nine games and had 55 tackles. He could establish himself in this defense as well. 

ASU will have some young returners on the defensive line in sophomores Tony Carter and Ryan Reese, who both saw some action last year. It also brought in transfers Elias Sherman from Maine and Shakai Woods from Middle Tennessee. Sherman and Woods were both starters last year, and Sherman finished with 48 tackles and 5.5 sacks while Woods finished with 50 tackles and 5.5 TFLs.

Also returning for the Red Wolves will be another weapon in Clune Van Andel, the junior kicker who has had one of the better legs in the league the past few seasons.

2026 Arkansas State Schedule

Arkansas State’s Sun Belt Championship Betting Odds

ASU is currently listed at +1100 to win the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves have the seventh-longest odds.

Arkansas State’s Betting Odds & Over/Under Win Total

• Arkansas State’s win total Over/Under is at 5.5
• The Over is at -190
• The Under is at +145

Arkansas State Season Prediction

I don’t predict Arkansas State will win the Sun Belt, but I do think the Red Wolves will win at least six games and getting to seven isn’t out of the question.

Jones always has his squad playing hard and seems to know how to make critical midseason adjustments. This should be key during the last three weeks of November when what I think will be some tough matchups that could dictate the Red Wolves’ season.

I also think ASU is returning – and bringing in – much more production and talent than people realize. The Red Wolves are an under-the-radar Sun Belt program going into the season.